Amidst warnings of an impending recession, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced plans to reduce military spending over the next three years, despite current spending reaching nearly $172 billion annually. This decision follows warnings from economic officials regarding dwindling resources and a slowdown in wartime economic growth, despite 4.3% growth in 2024. Russia faces challenges including high inflation, labor shortages, and the impact of Western sanctions, leading to cuts in non-military spending, particularly social programs. Furthermore, private industries are suffering, and banking officials have privately warned about a potential crisis next year, while the country struggles with reintegrating returning veterans.
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Why, after a decade of marriage equality, do we still hear the echoes of warnings that it would lead to societal collapse? The simple answer, it seems, is that some people just don’t like it when the world doesn’t conform to their narrow worldview. They predicted the end of days, a descent into chaos, the breakdown of all that is good and holy. Yet, here we are, still standing, still functioning, and still, for the most part, the same civilization we were before.
The arguments themselves were often absurd, filled with hyperbolic claims about the future of marriage, family, and the very fabric of society.… Continue reading
Economic data released Thursday presented a mixed picture of the US economy. The final estimate of Gross Domestic Product showed a decline of 0.5% from January to March, with consumer spending growth slowing significantly. However, business investment remained positive, and new orders for durable goods surged. While unemployment claims increased, and the GDP decline was due to trade deficits, the Federal Reserve is likely to focus on inflation risks and the labor market when making decisions on interest rates.
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In a stark economic forecast, the Federal Reserve projects aggressive stagflation for the remainder of 2025, anticipating 3 percent inflation, a 1.4 percent GDP decline, and 4.5 percent unemployment. This projection follows the Trump administration’s consideration of increased aid to Israel and the passage of the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” which significantly increases the national deficit. Fed Chair Powell reiterated that the current economic downturn stems directly from President Trump’s tariffs. The Fed maintains its current interest rate policy despite the projected stagflation.
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US retail sales have plummeted, marking the largest drop in four months. This significant decline reflects a widespread shift in consumer behavior, driven by a confluence of factors impacting the financial well-being of many Americans. The most immediate and palpable reason is the simple lack of disposable income. With the rising costs of essential goods like food, rent, and medical care, many are finding it increasingly difficult to afford even basic necessities, let alone discretionary purchases. This financial strain is leading individuals to drastically curtail their spending, prioritizing essential expenses and delaying or foregoing non-essential items altogether.
This reduction in consumer spending is visible across various sectors.… Continue reading
Unemployment benefit claims increased to an eight-month high of 247,000 last week, exceeding analysts’ predictions and raising concerns about the economy’s future. This rise, though still historically low, follows a trend of decreased consumer and business confidence, potentially linked to ongoing tariff uncertainty. The job market shows signs of cooling, with fewer job openings and a decrease in employee resignations, suggesting a slowdown in the previously robust hiring environment. Analysts anticipate modest job growth in May’s official employment report, further indicating a potential economic shift.
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In a recent interview, President Trump downplayed the impact of tariffs on consumer goods, claiming that increased prices on items like strollers and clothing are insignificant compared to energy costs. He defended the tariffs, arguing they address a massive trade deficit with China and asserting that consumers don’t need excessive quantities of goods. Despite a positive jobs report, concerns remain about the economic impact of the tariffs and a potential recession, with Trump attributing negative aspects to the Biden administration. Furthermore, the administration is facing pressure regarding the deportation of Kilmar Abrego Garcia, with conflicting legal opinions on his return.
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Berkshire Hathaway’s first-quarter operating earnings decreased 14% to $9.64 billion, primarily due to a 48.6% drop in insurance-underwriting profit, partially attributed to Southern California wildfires. The decline also reflects a $713 million foreign exchange loss, contrasting with a gain the previous year. Tariffs and geopolitical uncertainties, particularly impacting BNSF Railway and Geico, created an unpredictable environment and contributed to the decrease. Despite this, Berkshire’s cash reserves reached a record high of over $347 billion.
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Canada’s real GDP fell 0.2 per cent in February, primarily due to a 0.6 per cent decline in goods-producing industries, particularly mining and oil and gas extraction. While service-producing industries also contracted slightly, the manufacturing and finance sectors showed growth. However, early March data suggests a 0.1 per cent GDP increase, pointing towards a moderate 1.5 per cent annualized growth rate for the first quarter. Experts attribute February’s decline largely to severe winter weather, but anticipate potential economic headwinds from the ongoing US-China trade war in the second quarter.
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The U.S. economy contracted by 0.3 percent in the first quarter of 2025, marking its first decline in three years. This unexpected shrinkage, attributed to increased imports fueled by anticipated tariffs, sent markets sharply lower. Former President Trump blamed President Biden, claiming the downturn is a result of Biden’s economic policies and not his own anticipated tariffs. However, the weak economic performance, coupled with disappointing job growth numbers, presents a significant political challenge for Trump. Further economic data is expected on May 6th.
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John Q. Hosedrinker 
Matt Underwood