Trump Is pushing us toward a Crash. It could be 1929 all over again.
The economic landscape under Republican administrations, particularly since 1953, paints a concerning picture. History shows a clear pattern, with a significant number of recessions, a vast majority, beginning under Republican leadership. This context sets the stage for a worrisome present, especially when considering the actions of a figure like Donald Trump. His history of business failures, marked by multiple bankruptcies, raises serious red flags. Could the United States, under his influence, be heading towards a financial catastrophe mirroring the Great Depression?
The potential for a severe economic downturn under Trump’s guidance is a very real possibility, and it’s something that should concern everyone.… Continue reading
The Jobs Report Is Canceled. Here’s What Private Data Shows.
With the official jobs report sidelined due to the government shutdown, the focus shifts to private sector data, and the picture it paints isn’t exactly rosy. While the labor market hasn’t cratered, the available information suggests a modest weakening since the summer. It appears we’re in a bit of a holding pattern – not a sharp decline, but certainly not a surge of growth. The situation reminds me of treading water; we’re staying afloat, but not exactly making progress.
The data sources offer a mixed bag. Some reports suggest a slight decline in private-sector employment, while others show a modest rebound.… Continue reading
Layoffs in the U.S. surged in October to the highest level in 22 years, with over 153,000 job reductions reported, as companies increasingly adopt AI and tighten budgets. This brings the total layoffs this year to 1.1 million, rivaling those seen during the global financial crisis and the pandemic. Despite President Trump’s assertions about the economy, the report highlights a shift in the labor market. The decline in job security and increased job cuts are politically sensitive and come as voters express their economic concerns, as shown by Democratic victories in recent elections.
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October saw a significant surge in U.S. layoff announcements, with over 153,000 job cuts reported, a 175% increase year-over-year. This marks the highest October increase since 2003, driven by factors like AI adoption, softening spending, and rising costs. While major companies are citing AI as a reason for job cuts, the absence of official economic data due to the government shutdown complicates the assessment of the labor market’s health. Policymakers and investors are relying on alternative data, but the lack of government figures could hinder crucial economic decision-making and potentially impact future interest rate adjustments.
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A significant portion of the U.S. economy, representing about one-third of the nation’s GDP, is facing recessionary pressures, exacerbated by the ongoing government shutdown. According to Moody’s Analytics, 22 states are either in a recession or at serious risk, with states like Maine, Oregon, and Illinois already experiencing downturns. The shutdown, coupled with pre-existing economic challenges like rising food prices and tariff impacts, is intensifying economic distress, potentially leading to further job losses and reduced benefits for millions of Americans. Economists caution that a prolonged shutdown could have severe repercussions, potentially pushing the U.S. economy into a recession.
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President Putin has downplayed concerns about Russia’s slowing economic growth, attributing it to a deliberate effort to curb inflation and maintain macroeconomic stability, despite expectations of a slowdown from 4.3% to around 1% GDP growth. This stance echoes similar comments from the Central Bank Governor, who denies the existence of a recession, although data suggests a technical recession based on quarterly GDP declines. However, this contradicts prior statements from Russia’s Economic Minister as well as reports suggesting the government is considering increasing the value-added tax to manage its budget deficit and preserve reserves, potentially conflicting with Putin’s previous tax assurances.
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Hodges, a former Virginia National Guard member, criticized the deployment of National Guardsmen and federal agents to patrol Washington D.C., arguing that they are not properly trained for law enforcement duties. He believes that the troops and federal agents are not specialized for these roles, with many of the federal officers being investigators who typically work behind a desk. Hodges noted that if the president truly wants to help local law enforcement, he should allow D.C. to manage its own budget and restore funding cuts from FEMA.
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Mayor Bowser expressed confidence in the Metropolitan Police Department (MPD) under Chief Smith’s leadership, emphasizing the importance of maintaining community trust to prevent a breakdown in crime-solving efforts. She highlighted the potential for disaster if residents lose faith in the police, hindering communication and cooperation. Despite downplaying the extent of the federal government’s influence, the mayor acknowledged the president’s authority in declaring an emergency while affirming that the MPD would continue to operate under local and federal laws.
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Trump’s BLS nominee suggests suspending jobs report, and the implications are pretty striking. The idea, apparently, is to simply stop reporting the jobs numbers altogether. It’s like a magician making a problem disappear, but instead of a rabbit, you get… well, the truth. The basic logic seems to be: if you don’t test for COVID, there’s no more COVID; likewise, if you stop publishing job reports, there are no more job losses. Simple, right?
The potential motivation behind this move is pretty clear: to obscure the reality of the economic situation. Some see it as a way to cover up the administration’s failures, much like a shell game.… Continue reading
U.S. layoffs surged in July, reaching their highest level since the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, with 62,075 job cuts announced. This represents a significant 29 percent jump from June and a 140 percent increase compared to July 2024. The rise is attributed to government downsizing, corporate restructuring, and the growing influence of artificial intelligence. Sectors such as public agencies, tech firms, and retailers are leading the cuts, with automation and AI linked to over 20,000 layoffs in 2025.
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Matt Underwood 
John Q. Hosedrinker