Pollster Ivan Moore predicts that Republican Senator Ted Cruz will lose his Texas Senate seat to Democrat Representative Colin Allred in the upcoming election. The close race could determine which party controls the Senate. Though some recent polls show Cruz leading by between one and seven points, others suggest Allred could outperform him. The Dallas Morning News, the state’s top newspaper by daily circulation, endorsed Allred in a front-page editorial last month, and state politics has been influenced by Democrats in recent electoral cycles. Moore made the bold prediction via Twitter.
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A recent poll prediction showing Vice President Kamala Harris ahead of Donald Trump in Iowa has sparked a dramatic shift in election prediction markets. The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll, conducted by highly respected pollster Ann Selzer, found Harris three points up on Trump among likely voters. Consequently, markets such as Kalshi, Polymarket, and PredictIt, which had previously favored Trump, saw a decrease in his winning probability. Over $174 million has been traded on Kalshi alone related to the election, and Harris’s chances of victory have increased almost 10 points within the span of a week. Despite another favorable poll for Trump, analysts consider the Selzer survey significant due to the accuracy and credibility of previous results.
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A surprising turnaround in Iowa sees Democrat Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump 47% to 44% in a recent Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll, despite Iowa’s swing to the right in recent elections. The shift towards Harris is primarily driven by older and politically independent women. Trump however continues to lead with his core base, which includes men, evangelicals, rural residents, and non-college graduates. The poll was conducted from October 28-31 among 808 likely voters, including those who have already voted and those planning to. This development comes as a surprise given the state’s recent electoral history favoring Trump.
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A final poll before Election Day shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Trump in Iowa by three points, a significant swing from the double-digit lead Trump had over Joe Biden in June. The survey suggests Harris’ popularity surge is partly due to support from older women and independent voters, with her lead among women aged 65 and older being more than two times. Meanwhile, Trump continues to lead among Iowans between 35 and 54 years of age. Democrats aren’t surprised by the poll’s findings, suggesting it aligns with sentiments heard from various voter groups in Iowa. However, the Trump Campaign and Iowa GOP Chair, Jeff Kauffman, dispute the accuracy of this poll, citing an Emerson College poll that shows Trump still leading.
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Donald Trump is reportedly experiencing anxiety and sleep loss due to his concern over polling numbers as he hopes to return to the White House. Trump has been pressuring his staff to work harder to ensure his victory against Vice President Kamala Harris on Election Day. Some of Trump’s fears were alleviated when his chief pollster, Tony Fabrizio, produced a memo suggesting that he was in a stronger position to win the election compared to past campaigns, but there are concerns that bias could be influencing these results. Trump is not the only one in his party worried about voter turnout and the numbers, with Republican figures stressing the importance of male voter turnout in ensuring a Trump win. Meanwhile, Harris’s campaign team predicts a narrow win for her come Tuesday.
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The article predicts that Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election against Donald Trump, becoming the first woman and person of Asian heritage to hold the office. To support this forecast, the author notes Harris’s extensive fundraising efforts, her successful campaign, and the demographic diversification in the U.S. The article also mentions the gender gap in voting, according to which Harris has a significant lead over Trump among women. The author acknowledges this prediction could be incorrect but urges readers to vote for Harris to ensure victory.
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US Green Party contender Jill Stein has rejected calls by over a dozen European Green parties to drop out of the US presidential race. They argue she could harm the chances of Joe Biden’s running mate Kamala Harris by splitting the left-wing vote in key states, thus potentially tipping the balance in Donald Trump’s favour. The European Greens wrote in an open letter that the race between Trump and Harris, compared to the 2016 contest, was “too close for comfort”. They also expressed the need for Kamala Harris as the US president to tackle global issues like climate change, and to bring stability to the Middle East. Stein has said she is “categorically not considering” quitting the campaign.
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Donald Trump has asserted he will “protect” women, but a majority of women appear unimpressed. The latest ABC News/Ipsos national poll shows the Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris enjoys a 14% lead among women over Trump, rising to 23% among women with a college degree and 34% among women under 40. The Brookings Institution suggests this owes to anger among women about the 2022 Dobbs decision. The same poll showed a 10-point swing to Harris among voters over 65 compared to 2020, some suggesting this is due to the “revenge of Boomer feminists”. Early voting tallies show women accounting for 55% of all ballots cast in battleground states such as Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
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Vice President Kamala Harris is polling significantly higher than Donald Trump among women, according to an ABC News/Ipsos national poll. Harris has a 14% lead over Trump overall with women, which increases to 23% for women with a college degree and 34% for women under the age of 40. The Brookings Institution credits Harris’ popularity with older voters to the 2022 Dobbs Supreme Court decision, which restricted abortion rights. Prominent pro-Trump figures have voiced concern over these poll numbers, especially as early voting data indicates a majority of female voters. In Pennsylvania, for example, 56% of mail-in ballots have come from women so far.
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John Q. Hosedrinker