Donald Trump is reportedly experiencing anxiety and sleep loss due to his concern over polling numbers as he hopes to return to the White House. Trump has been pressuring his staff to work harder to ensure his victory against Vice President Kamala Harris on Election Day. Some of Trump’s fears were alleviated when his chief pollster, Tony Fabrizio, produced a memo suggesting that he was in a stronger position to win the election compared to past campaigns, but there are concerns that bias could be influencing these results. Trump is not the only one in his party worried about voter turnout and the numbers, with Republican figures stressing the importance of male voter turnout in ensuring a Trump win. Meanwhile, Harris’s campaign team predicts a narrow win for her come Tuesday.
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The article predicts that Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election against Donald Trump, becoming the first woman and person of Asian heritage to hold the office. To support this forecast, the author notes Harris’s extensive fundraising efforts, her successful campaign, and the demographic diversification in the U.S. The article also mentions the gender gap in voting, according to which Harris has a significant lead over Trump among women. The author acknowledges this prediction could be incorrect but urges readers to vote for Harris to ensure victory.
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US Green Party contender Jill Stein has rejected calls by over a dozen European Green parties to drop out of the US presidential race. They argue she could harm the chances of Joe Biden’s running mate Kamala Harris by splitting the left-wing vote in key states, thus potentially tipping the balance in Donald Trump’s favour. The European Greens wrote in an open letter that the race between Trump and Harris, compared to the 2016 contest, was “too close for comfort”. They also expressed the need for Kamala Harris as the US president to tackle global issues like climate change, and to bring stability to the Middle East. Stein has said she is “categorically not considering” quitting the campaign.
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Donald Trump has asserted he will “protect” women, but a majority of women appear unimpressed. The latest ABC News/Ipsos national poll shows the Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris enjoys a 14% lead among women over Trump, rising to 23% among women with a college degree and 34% among women under 40. The Brookings Institution suggests this owes to anger among women about the 2022 Dobbs decision. The same poll showed a 10-point swing to Harris among voters over 65 compared to 2020, some suggesting this is due to the “revenge of Boomer feminists”. Early voting tallies show women accounting for 55% of all ballots cast in battleground states such as Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
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Vice President Kamala Harris is polling significantly higher than Donald Trump among women, according to an ABC News/Ipsos national poll. Harris has a 14% lead over Trump overall with women, which increases to 23% for women with a college degree and 34% for women under the age of 40. The Brookings Institution credits Harris’ popularity with older voters to the 2022 Dobbs Supreme Court decision, which restricted abortion rights. Prominent pro-Trump figures have voiced concern over these poll numbers, especially as early voting data indicates a majority of female voters. In Pennsylvania, for example, 56% of mail-in ballots have come from women so far.
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Women are dominating early voting for the 2024 elections in the US, contributing 54% of the more than 58 million mail-in and in-person votes that have been cast, causing concern among Donald Trump’s supporters. In battleground states Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina, the gap is at least 10 points and in Pennsylvania, the largest swing state, women have cast 56% of the votes. It is not known how these women voted, but supporters of Trump fear this trend may sway the election in favor of Vice-President Kamala Harris. Harris has championed abortion rights in her campaign, aiming to appeal to all women, including Republican women dissatisfied with Trump. However, it is uncertain if the rise in female voters will be beneficial exclusively for Harris as Trump has recently encouraged all Republicans to vote early.
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The US in brief’s team from The Economist will be providing rapid analysis of the US election results on Tuesday, November 5th. The fastest analysis will be available on their app and home page on election day. Detailed live results will be published on their page soon after the first polls close at 6pm EST/11 pm GMT.
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Prominent right-wing influencers Mike Cernovich and Charlie Kirk have expressed concern over the early voting turnout among women which could negatively impact Donald Trump’s chances of victory. A Politico analysis showed a 10% gender gap in early voting, with women constituting 55% of early voters. Cernovich praised Trump’s strategy of targeting male audiences through podcast appearances but criticised the campaign’s engagement with women voters.
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Barbara Pierce Bush’s endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris is not just a personal statement; it’s a profound political moment that signals the shifting landscape of American party politics. As the daughter of former President George W. Bush and granddaughter of George H.W. Bush, Barbara is situated in a unique position within the longstanding Bush political legacy. Watching her step out in support of a Democratic candidate, especially in such a polarized climate, prompts deep reflection on what this means for both the Republican Party and the larger political discourse in the United States.
Campaigning for Harris in Pennsylvania during the final stretch of the 2024 presidential election truly showcases a commitment to values that resonate beyond party lines.… Continue reading
John Q. Hosedrinker 
Matt Underwood