A significant portion of Russian property developers are facing financial distress, with approximately 20% on the brink of bankruptcy due to declining sales and high interest rates, and the share could exceed 30%. This is exacerbated by low demand, limited state support, and the diversion of resources to the war in Ukraine, resulting in shrinking sales and increasing debt burdens. The real estate sector is experiencing the sharpest deterioration, with a substantial rise in non-performing loans. Russian authorities are considering measures such as a moratorium on developer bankruptcies.
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Dmitry Peskov, the spokesman for Russian President Vladimir Putin, declared that NATO is “at war with Russia” over Ukraine, despite NATO not directly entering the war. This statement follows Poland’s shooting down of Russian drones, prompting the invocation of NATO’s Article 4, which triggered consultations among allies but no military response. Simultaneously, Romania scrambled fighter jets after a Russian drone breached its airspace, and both the UK and Romanian governments summoned Russian ambassadors in protest of the actions. Lithuania and Poland have deployed extra troops along their borders due to joint military drills between Belarus and Russia, further escalating tensions.
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Over the summer, the Trump administration’s approach to Russia has shifted, as it attempts to pressure Vladimir Putin into peace talks with Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Despite this tougher stance, Putin has resisted negotiations, leading to increased calls for harsher sanctions against Russia. While Trump desires the EU to cease buying Russian oil and strengthen its sanctions, he is waiting for Europe to make these changes first. The U.S. is working to reduce Russia’s ability to fund the war, aiming to displace Russian gas.
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Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski has proposed that Western allies consider intercepting Russian drones and missiles within Ukrainian airspace, a suggestion made after Russian UAVs violated Polish airspace. Sikorski emphasized that while the capability exists for NATO and the EU to undertake such actions, a collective decision involving allies is required. Further, he advocated for coordinated measures against Russia’s shadow fleet in the Baltic Sea, potentially through the establishment of a maritime control zone to prevent potential environmental disasters. These proposals follow the discovery of Russian drone wreckage across Poland, prompting NATO to launch Operation Eastern Sentry to bolster its eastern flank.
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Romania reported a Russian drone had breached its airspace, marking the second NATO country to report such an incident. Romanian fighter jets tracked the drone near the Ukrainian border after Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure. The drone, identified as a Geran, was detected 20km southwest of Chilia Veche before disappearing from radar; the Romanian government assessed the collateral risks and decided against shooting it down. This incursion prompted reactions from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and the EU, as well as increasing military readiness from neighboring countries like Poland and the Czech Republic.
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During the Zapad-2025 exercises, Russia has deployed Iskander-M missile systems in the Kaliningrad region, positioning them within striking distance of several NATO countries. At least two launchers carrying 9M723 ballistic missiles were spotted near the Polish border, with a range of approximately 500 kilometers, putting nearly all of Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, parts of Estonia, and other areas within reach. The deployment, a part of exercises involving up to 30,000 troops, has prompted responses from NATO, including contingency plans and the Eastern Sentry mission, particularly after Russian drone violations. The Iskander’s ability to launch various missiles and its mobile nature pose significant challenges for detection and rapid repositioning.
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On September 14th, Ukrainian special forces reportedly destroyed a Russian Buk-M3 anti-aircraft missile system in the occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast, according to Ukraine’s HUR. The Buk-M3, valued between $40-$50 million, is a key air defense asset used to target various airborne, ground, and water-based targets. This strike near Oleksandrivka marks another successful hit against a Buk system, a medium-range surface-to-air missile system, in the ongoing conflict. The Buk-M3 is the latest version of the system, capable of tracking and engaging numerous targets simultaneously and gained notoriety in 2014 with the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17.
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On September 13, a Russian drone entered Romanian airspace during an attack on Ukraine, prompting the scrambling of two F-16 fighter jets. The drone, detected by radar systems, penetrated about six miles into Romanian territory, remaining in NATO airspace for around 50 minutes before turning back toward Ukraine. Though close to being shot down, the Romanian military did not engage, as the drone did not pose an immediate danger. This incident followed a similar incursion into Polish airspace where at least three drones were shot down, highlighting repeated violations of NATO airspace by Russian attack drones.
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On September 13–14, Ukrainian special units conducted coordinated sabotage operations against Russian railway infrastructure in the Oryol and Leningrad regions, targeting vital supply routes. Attacks on the Orel–Kursk railway line resulted in the deaths of two Russian servicemen, while an attack on the St. Petersburg–Pskov line caused the derailment and destruction of 15 fuel tankers. The Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR) and Special Operations Forces (SSO) were reportedly involved in these joint operations, which significantly hampered Russia’s ability to supply troops on the Kharkiv and Sumy fronts. These actions followed an earlier Ukrainian drone strike on the Kirishi Oil Refinery near St. Petersburg.
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Former U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson dismissed Russia’s objections to foreign troops in Ukraine, advocating for immediate deployment, regardless of Moscow’s stance. Speaking at the Yalta European Strategy conference, Johnson criticized European allies for their hesitant approach to security guarantees, which are contingent on a ceasefire that Russia shows no interest in. His proposal involves a “Coalition of the Willing” providing training and logistics, sending a clear message that Ukraine, not Russia, determines which forces are present. Johnson believes this assertive action will shift the strategic landscape in the Kremlin, signaling the West’s commitment to Ukraine.
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John Q. Hosedrinker