Donald Trump’s incoming administration, through special envoy Keith Kellogg, aims to broker a Ukraine-Russia peace agreement within 100 days of the inauguration, rejecting suggestions that this involves territorial concessions to Russia. Kellogg asserts the goal is to preserve Ukraine’s sovereignty, while Trump himself acknowledges Russia’s historical concerns regarding NATO expansion near its borders. This timeline contrasts with Trump’s previous 24-hour claim, and analysts warn that a rushed agreement could undermine Ukrainian democracy and embolden Russia. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy anticipates a “new chapter” with Trump’s presidency.
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NATO has assumed command of Polish air defenses from the US, a transition intended to ensure continued support for Ukraine despite uncertainties surrounding the incoming Trump administration’s policies. This shift, part of a months-long effort, transfers responsibility for aiding Ukraine’s war effort from the US to European allies. The move safeguards crucial logistical nodes in Poland, vital for delivering aid to Ukraine. A final $500 million US military aid package was announced before the handover, alongside concerns over the future of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group.
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Norway’s unprecedented commitment to Ukraine’s defense includes a €2 billion military aid package for 2025, exceeding all previous contributions. This substantial support, discussed at the Ramstein summit, prioritizes strengthening Ukraine’s air defenses and bolstering domestic military production, particularly ammunition. The aid complements existing models like the “Danish model,” focusing on direct purchases from Ukrainian manufacturers. This commitment builds on previous Norwegian aid totaling $242 million for naval support and reflects Norway’s consistent and significant backing of Ukraine.
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During a massive Russian missile attack on December 13, 2024, a Ukrainian F-16 pilot achieved a remarkable feat by destroying six cruise missiles in a single sortie. This involved using both air-to-air missiles and, for the first time in combat, the aircraft’s gun to down two missiles in a stacked formation. The pilot’s success, exceeding initial American expectations, contributed to the overall interception of 81 Russian missiles that day, with F-16 pilots accounting for eleven. This extraordinary performance highlights the skill of Ukrainian pilots even with older aircraft.
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EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas asserted the EU’s willingness to assume primary responsibility for supporting Ukraine should US aid diminish. This contrasts sharply with previous statements suggesting Europe’s inability to fully replace US support. Kallas expressed confidence in continued allied backing, emphasizing the importance of preventing Russia from becoming the dominant global power. She cautioned against speculating on future US commitment, highlighting the shared interest in Ukraine’s success.
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A recent Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region resulted in the capture of several settlements, utilizing effective combined arms tactics including electronic warfare and HIMARS strikes to hinder Russian reinforcements. Simultaneously, long-range drone and missile attacks targeted Russian infrastructure, including an aviation technical base in Kursk and a gas condensate terminal near Leningrad. These actions, coupled with significant Ukrainian losses inflicted on Russian personnel and equipment, are forcing Russia to utilize less armored vehicles and rely on infantry assaults. Ukraine’s investment in long-range and unmanned systems is a key factor in its evolving military strategy.
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A $500 million military aid package, including air defense missiles and F-16 equipment, was announced by the Biden administration as a final show of support for Ukraine before the presidential transition. This aid, utilizing remaining Pentagon funds, is part of a broader strategy to bolster Ukraine’s position ahead of potential negotiations with Russia. The announcement comes amidst concerns about a potential shift in US policy under the incoming Trump administration, which has expressed criticism of previous aid levels. This final package, coupled with other initiatives, aims to strengthen Ukraine’s military capabilities before a potential change in leadership and foreign policy.
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Nikolay Goltsev, a Russian-Montrealer, received a 40-month prison sentence for conspiring to illegally export over $10 million in restricted electronics to Russia. These components were used in Russian military systems deployed during the invasion of Ukraine. Goltsev and his wife, Kristina Puzyreva (who received a 24-month sentence), publicly professed support for Ukraine while secretly facilitating the procurement scheme. The Justice Department highlighted text messages revealing their true allegiances and intent to support Russia’s war effort. Goltsev also forfeited $4 million and additional assets.
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Unless substantial new U.S. aid is provided, Ukraine will likely face complete defeat and Russian control within the next 12-18 months. This presents a significant challenge for President-elect Trump, who previously promised a swift resolution to the conflict but now faces a reality where Putin seeks Ukraine’s complete capitulation. Trump must choose between accepting a humiliating global defeat or redoubling U.S. support for Ukraine, a decision impacting both Ukraine’s fate and the success of his presidency. Putin believes he is on the verge of victory and is unlikely to negotiate unless his military position changes drastically. A Russian victory would entail the complete eradication of Ukrainian independence and identity, resulting in widespread suffering and repression.
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A final meeting of Ukraine’s Western allies, including President Zelensky, will occur at Ramstein Air Base in Germany before Donald Trump’s inauguration. US Defense Secretary Austin will announce a significant new military aid package for Ukraine at this meeting. The gathering aims to solidify support for Ukraine before Trump assumes office, given his past criticisms of military aid to Kyiv and uncertain approach to the conflict. Both sides in the war are attempting to secure advantageous positions before the anticipated changes in US policy.
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John Q. Hosedrinker