On November 10th, Russia reported that its air defenses successfully shot down 70 Ukrainian drones, including 34 in Moscow Oblast, during the largest drone attack on the Russian capital to date. The attack, which began around 7:00 a.m. Moscow time, involved drones entering Russian airspace from multiple locations, including Bryansk, Oryol, Kaluga, Kursk, and Tula oblasts. While unverified footage of drones and resulting damage surfaced on social media, Russia reported at least one person injured in Moscow Oblast, with airport operations temporarily halted due to the threat. Notably, this attack coincided with Russia’s largest drone attack on Ukraine overnight, involving 145 drones, highlighting the escalating use of unmanned aerial vehicles in the ongoing conflict.
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NATO’s top military official, Admiral Rob Bauer, has stated that the alliance would have intervened directly in Ukraine to expel Russian forces if Moscow did not possess nuclear weapons. The threat of nuclear escalation, however, has prevented NATO from deploying troops on Ukrainian soil, despite the alliance’s support for Ukraine’s defense against the Russian invasion. This stark difference in NATO’s response to the conflicts in Afghanistan and Ukraine highlights the significant role nuclear weapons play in international security and the profound impact they have on the calculus of military intervention. The presence of Russia’s vast nuclear arsenal, coupled with increasingly aggressive rhetoric from Russian officials, has effectively limited the scope of Western military action in Ukraine.
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Russia has amassed approximately 50,000 troops, including North Korean soldiers, in the Kursk region, preparing for a potential offensive. While a major offensive has yet to begin, US and Ukrainian officials believe an attack involving North Korean troops is imminent. The North Korean forces, divided into assault and support units, have received training from Russia in artillery fire, infantry tactics, and trench clearing. Although the Ukrainian defense is expected to hold, both Russian and North Korean forces are likely to suffer significant casualties, mirroring the losses experienced in eastern Ukraine.
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Despite recent assurances to Ukrainian President Zelensky, there are growing indications that incoming President Trump’s Ukraine policy may prioritize peace over territorial restoration, potentially leading to a “take it or leave it” situation for Kyiv. While Trump’s spokesperson denied a senior Republican strategist’s claim that the president would focus on peace, Trump’s decision to exclude pro-Ukraine Secretary of State Pompeo from his administration and his prior skepticism towards Ukraine funding raise concerns. Furthermore, Elon Musk’s presence on the call with Zelensky and his past expressions of doubt regarding Ukraine’s chances against Russia, coupled with John Bolton’s prediction of a deal with Putin involving Ukrainian concessions, further reinforce this potential shift in US policy.
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The Biden administration is expediting the delivery of over 500 Patriot and NASAMS interceptor missiles to Ukraine, aiming to meet their air defense needs for the remainder of 2024. This accelerated delivery comes amid concerns that a future Trump administration may halt weapons shipments to Ukraine. The administration is also preparing to send contractors to maintain F-16 fighter jets and other air defense systems, recognizing the need for operational support. These actions are part of a larger effort to provide Ukraine with critical military assistance in the face of ongoing Russian aggression.
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Russia has suffered its most severe monthly casualties since the start of the war in Ukraine, with an estimated 1,500 soldiers killed or injured daily in October, resulting in a total of 700,000 casualties. This heavy price, paid for “tiny increments of land,” is a direct consequence of President Putin’s ambitions, according to UK Chief of Defence Staff Admiral Sir Tony Radakin. The war has drained Russia’s resources, with over 40% of public expenditure dedicated to defence and security, and has caused immense suffering for the Russian people. Despite Russia’s recent tactical gains, Western allies remain steadfast in their support of Ukraine, reiterating their commitment to provide assistance “for as long as it takes.”
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Moscow and its suburbs experienced a major drone attack overnight, resulting in the temporary closure of Russia’s busiest airport and injuring a woman. Thirty-two drones were shot down over the city’s outskirts, and one drone sparked a fire, causing burns to a woman in a nearby village. While no injuries were reported in Moscow itself, Russian media reported drone debris ignited suburban homes. Meanwhile, a British defense official reported that Russian forces suffered their worst month of casualties in October, with an average of 1,500 dead and wounded per day, a stark reminder of the ongoing human cost of the war in Ukraine.
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The United States is sending over 500 interceptors for the Patriot and NASAMS missile defence systems to Ukraine, which are expected to arrive in the coming weeks. This shipment is intended to address the growing need for air defense capabilities in the face of increased Russian attacks and should meet Ukraine’s needs until the end of the year. The Pentagon is also sending a small number of contractors to assist Ukraine with repairs and maintenance of F-16 fighter jets and other systems, a move prompted by the increasing number of systems failing due to a lack of skilled personnel. This surge in military aid is aimed at bolstering Ukraine’s negotiating position and enhancing its defense capabilities, especially given the impending change in US administration. However, the strain on US military stockpiles is a major concern, prompting the US to explore options for acquiring weapons from other countries for transfer to Ukraine.
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Ukrainian drones have successfully struck an ammunition depot in the Tula region of Russia, according to reports. This latest attack is part of a growing campaign by Kyiv to target key Russian military sites deep within Russia using drones, aiming to cripple Moscow’s military machine. While Russia claims to have shot down 50 Ukrainian drones across several regions, including Tula, Ukrainian sources insist that the attack on the Aleksinsky Chemical Plant was successful, citing disruptions to operations and visible smoke from the site. These drone strikes come in response to Russia’s continued missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, highlighting the escalating nature of the conflict.
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Ukraine has achieved a significant milestone in its defense capabilities with the production of its first 100 domestically-made missiles, a testament to our nation’s resilience and determination in the face of Russian aggression. This achievement comes after the successful development and testing of a ballistic missile and a missile-drone, bolstering our ability to defend ourselves against the ongoing invasion. The production of these weapons is crucial for our defense strategy as we strive for greater independence in our military capabilities, particularly in the absence of Western support for deep strikes into Russia. We are confident that our domestic weapons production will continue to grow and strengthen our ability to defend our sovereignty.
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John Q. Hosedrinker