On September 24, the Ukrainian Armed Forces confirmed a successful strike on a Russian drone production site in Valuyki, Belgorod Oblast, as part of efforts to degrade the enemy’s military capabilities. The General Staff reported the attack aimed to disrupt UAV production, with hits and a fire being observed. Local reports and the regional governor confirmed the attack, with the governor noting 34 UAVs targeted the area. Further damage assessment is still underway.
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy issued a warning to Russian leadership, suggesting that if the war doesn’t cease, they may become targets of Ukrainian attacks. He stated that the country’s military possesses combat drones with substantial range capabilities, and emphasized that the lifting of restrictions on weapons provided by allies has expanded Ukraine’s strategic options. Zelenskyy affirmed that Ukraine would not target civilian areas and reiterated his commitment to ending the war, and that he has no intention of remaining in power once the war is over.
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At a G20 meeting, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov accused NATO and the EU of declaring war on Russia through their support of Ukraine. This claim aligns with the Kremlin’s narrative that the West initiated the conflict. These remarks follow a series of Russian airspace violations by drones and fighter jets in several NATO member states, including Poland, Romania, and Estonia. Furthermore, escalating tensions have arisen as various officials, including former U.S. President Donald Trump, have suggested that NATO should shoot down Russian aircraft breaching their airspace, prompting retaliatory warnings from Russia.
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On Wednesday, NORAD tracked two Tu-95 strategic bombers and two Su-35 fighters within the Alaskan Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), deploying an E-3 Sentry surveillance plane, F-16 Fighting Falcons, and KC-135 aerial tankers to intercept them. The Russian aircraft remained in international airspace, and the activity is considered routine, though this instance marks the first since August 26th. This follows recent reports of Russian aircraft breaching Estonian airspace, and overall incidents are up to 12 in 2024, leading to increased vigilance among U.S. and European allies.
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European diplomats delivered a stern warning to the Kremlin this week, indicating NATO’s readiness to use force, potentially including shooting down Russian planes, in response to future airspace violations. During a tense Moscow meeting, British, French, and German envoys addressed a recent incursion by Russian fighter jets over Estonia. Following discussions, these diplomats determined the airspace violation was a deliberate action orchestrated by Russian commanders.
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In a recent radio interview, Russia’s ambassador to France, Alexei Meshkov, stated that downing any Russian aircraft would be considered an act of war, regardless of airspace violations. This statement follows growing accusations from European nations regarding breaches of their airspace by Russian planes and drones. Meshkov also claimed that Russia does not shoot down aircraft that infringe on its airspace and asserted that the West has not provided evidence of the alleged violations, even though such incidents have occurred. These comments come amidst a backdrop of heightened tensions, with examples of similar acts happening in the past.
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Germany’s defence minister has raised concerns about Russian satellites shadowing Intelsat satellites used by the German military, with the potential for disruption, manipulation, or destruction of these assets. These Russian satellites, launched in 2014 and 2023, have exhibited “loitering” behavior near other satellites, prompting observations of close approaches and “unfriendly” actions. The minister also highlighted that Russia and China have rapidly expanded their capabilities for space warfare in recent years. In response to the threat, Germany announced a €35 billion investment in its space programs over the next five years, also emphasizing the need to discuss developing offensive capabilities for deterrence.
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On September 25, Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) reported a successful drone attack on occupied Crimea, destroying two Russian An-26 transport aircraft and two radar stations. This strike is part of a larger effort to eliminate valuable Russian assets on the peninsula. The An-26 aircraft, commonly used for troop and cargo transport, were targeted along with a surface surveillance radar system and a coastal radar station. This attack continues the trend of intensified operations against Russian military infrastructure in Crimea, following similar strikes in recent weeks.
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Poland is poised to amend its law on military deployments, enabling its forces to engage Russian objects, including drones, over Ukraine without needing prior approval from NATO or the EU. This proposed change, submitted by the defense ministry, aims to eliminate current restrictions that require such authorization before action. The amendment would allow the military to act more swiftly against threats, implementing a “shoot first, ask later” strategy. This move follows an incident in September where Poland shot down suspected Russian drones, marking a first for a NATO member in the ongoing conflict.
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The Finance Ministry is implementing tax increases and expanding the tax base to finance defense and security, including lowering the revenue threshold for reporting for small and medium-sized businesses and introducing taxes on gambling. These measures come as the economy cools and revenue from oil and gas sales decline. Facing economic challenges and previously aiming to replenish the National Welfare Fund, the Ministry now plans to adjust oil-related tax flows. The Ministry’s proposals were made shortly before the formal 2026 budget proposal is to be presented.
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John Q. Hosedrinker