The United States will provide Ukraine with anti-personnel landmines, despite their controversial nature and international ban under the Ottawa Treaty. These “non-persistent” mines are designed to become inert after a set time, mitigating some risks, though concerns remain regarding civilian harm during their active period. While the US and Russia are not signatories to the treaty, Ukraine’s potential withdrawal is also being considered due to military necessity. The provision of these mines marks a significant escalation in military aid to Ukraine.
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Over 1,000 soldiers, including officers, deserted Russia’s 20th Guards Motor Rifle Division, as revealed by an internal document obtained by iStories. This mass desertion, comprised of contract soldiers, mobilized personnel, and conscripts, followed significant losses and repeated Ukrainian attacks on the division’s headquarters. The desertion rate has steadily increased since the war’s beginning, peaking in July 2024. While the desertion of such a large number of soldiers from a single division is significant, Russia continues to field multiple divisions in the conflict.
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President Duda, speaking before departing for Jordan, hailed President Biden’s authorization for Ukraine to use US-supplied long-range missiles within Russia as a potential turning point in the war. This decision, mirroring similar approvals from France and Britain, signifies a unified Western front providing robust support to Ukraine. Duda emphasized the importance of this aid in countering Russia’s escalating attacks on civilian infrastructure and the mobilization of allies, including North Korean troops. He viewed the timing as significant, contrasting the Western resolve with Chancellor Scholz’s recent phone call with Putin, suggesting a potential attempt to broker a ceasefire before a potential Trump presidency.
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Following Russia’s updated nuclear doctrine and Ukraine’s first use of US-supplied long-range missiles against Russian territory, the UK Prime Minister reaffirmed unwavering support for Ukraine. This commitment includes continued military aid, such as the recently supplied Storm Shadow missiles and funding for new drones. Despite Russia’s nuclear threats, the UK’s stance remains resolute, emphasizing its dedication to Ukrainian sovereignty and the necessity of ending the war. The G20 summit’s communique, while described as “disappointing” by Downing Street, ultimately affirmed support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity.
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To bolster its defense capabilities, Ukraine announced plans to significantly increase domestic production of long-range drones and missiles, aiming for at least 30,000 drones and 3,000 cruise missiles/hybrids next year. This initiative, supported by recent U.S. aid, is intended to offset artillery shortages and counter Russian drone attacks. Development includes the domestically produced Palianytsia missile-drone, already deployed against Russia, and a new technology center will support this effort. This surge in domestic production comes as Ukraine seeks to expand its long-range capabilities while Western arms supplies remain subject to restrictions.
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Russia’s updated nuclear doctrine, approved by President Putin, significantly broadens the conditions for nuclear weapon use, including scenarios involving aggression against Russia or its allies with nuclear state support, or large-scale non-nuclear attacks. This action, according to German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, is an attempt to intimidate the West, a tactic previously employed by the Kremlin. Despite this, Europe remains united in its response, rejecting Russia’s attempts at coercion. Baerbock stressed Germany’s commitment to supporting Ukraine and its neighbors, and to not being intimidated by these threats.
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Following US authorization, Ukraine reportedly launched US-supplied Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) missiles into Russia’s Bryansk region. Russia claims to have intercepted five of eight missiles, while US officials suggest a higher number were intercepted. This attack prompted strong condemnation from Russia, accusing the US of escalating the conflict and implying direct American involvement. The incident coincided with Russia’s announcement of revised nuclear doctrine, expanding conditions for nuclear weapon use, further raising international tensions.
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Recent IDF operations in South Lebanon uncovered a significant quantity of Russian-made weapons in Hezbollah’s possession, including recently manufactured anti-tank missiles. These weapons, some originating from Russian stockpiles in Syria, contradict prior assessments of Hezbollah’s arsenal and indicate a deepening relationship between Russia and the Iran-backed group. This discovery has heightened Israeli concerns about Moscow’s neutrality in the conflict and prompted calls for a more assertive Israeli response to Russian support for Hezbollah. The presence of advanced Russian weaponry, like the Kornet anti-tank missile, has proven highly effective in Hezbollah’s attacks against Israeli forces.
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Reports indicate that North Korea has deployed troops to support Russia’s war effort in Ukraine, with estimates ranging from 11,000 to 100,000 soldiers. While the North Korean army lacks recent combat experience, some units, like the elite 11th Corps, possess specialized training in infiltration and sabotage. Moscow’s motivation is to alleviate manpower shortages, while Pyongyang likely seeks financial compensation and access to Russian military technology. The deployment’s effectiveness remains uncertain due to language barriers and unfamiliar equipment, although some believe their unique training may prove valuable.
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A leaked document reveals that over 1,000 soldiers from Russia’s 20th Guards Motor Rifle Division have deserted since the beginning of the Ukraine war. This figure comprises professional soldiers, mobilized troops, and conscripts, highlighting a significant desertion rate within a single division. The IStories report suggests this may represent a much larger problem, given the numerous divisions involved in the conflict. Many desertions occurred early in the war, fueled by the conflict’s extended duration exceeding initial promises. The report underscores the limitations of official Russian accounts regarding military desertions.
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John Q. Hosedrinker