Growing frustration is evident among Russian elites concerning Vladimir Putin, fueled by the protracted war in Ukraine and the nation’s deteriorating economic landscape. This disillusionment stems from a sense of looming catastrophe, with many elites no longer defending Putin and lamenting the perceived self-destructive decisions being made. Despite internal discontent and falling approval ratings, Putin remains determined to continue the war, reportedly fixated on capturing the Donbas region by the end of 2026, with his ambitions potentially expanding if Ukraine appears to collapse. Discussions within the elite also reveal concerns over increasingly restrictive internet controls within Russia, drawing comparisons to North Korea.
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Russian forces launched an extensive missile and drone assault on May 24, primarily targeting Kyiv and its environs, resulting in casualties and widespread damage across the capital. This multi-hour attack, described as one of the largest in the past year, involved hundreds of missiles and drones and impacted every district of Kyiv, including central areas. Numerous civilian homes, infrastructure, and cultural institutions, such as the National Art Museum and the Chornobyl Museum, sustained damage, with the latter reporting irretrievable losses to its collection. The attack also saw the use of Russia’s Oreshnik medium-range ballistic missile, marking its third deployment against Ukraine, and prompted Poland to scramble fighter jets to protect its airspace.
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Amidst an intense aerial assault on Kyiv, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported the use of Russia’s hypersonic Oreshnik ballistic missile, marking its third deployment in the war. This powerful weapon, capable of carrying nuclear or conventional warheads, struck the Bila Tserkva area, causing widespread damage to buildings, including residential structures and schools, and resulting in at least two fatalities. Russia’s Defense Ministry confirmed the Oreshnik’s use, alongside other missile types, in strikes targeting Ukrainian military command and control facilities, air bases, and military industrial enterprises. The ministry asserted these actions were in retaliation for Ukrainian strikes on civilian sites within Russia, a claim Ukraine has refuted, calling them propaganda.
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In the wake of President Trump’s visit to China and subsequent talks with Xi Jinping, a $14 billion arms sale to Taiwan has been suspended, signaling a potential shift in US policy. This pause, attributed to munitions being diverted for “Epic Fury,” raises concerns among regional allies about the US commitment to longstanding defense partnerships. Trump’s previous rhetoric and actions, including his stance on NATO and support for Russia, suggest a potential willingness to abandon traditional allies in favor of a strategy that carves the world into spheres of influence. This perceived strategic weakness, exacerbated by the US’s inability to project military power in the Middle East, has led to quiet consternation and a search for reassurances from Washington.
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According to Estonia’s intelligence chief, Russian President Vladimir Putin may lose his negotiation leverage within months due to significant pressures. Russia is experiencing unsustainable troop losses, with daily casualties far exceeding recruitment capabilities, and even minimal territorial advances have stalled. Compounding these military challenges, economic hardship, stemming from international sanctions and Ukrainian attacks on its energy sector, has forced Russia to significantly cut its growth forecast, indicating a weakening of its overall position.
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The question of Ukraine’s NATO future is a point of contention among allies, with some advocating for continued openness while others express concerns about escalating tensions with Russia. Sweden, however, views Ukraine as a future European security asset, citing its large armed forces, wartime innovation, and impressive defense industrial capacity. This Swedish perspective highlights Ukraine’s potential to contribute significantly to NATO, particularly given its rapid scaling of weapons production and a highly efficient defense market.
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Intelligence shared with Ukraine from US and European partners suggests Russia may be preparing a strike utilizing the Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile, potentially targeting Kyiv and other Ukrainian territories. President Zelenskyy has urged the public to heed air-raid warnings and utilize shelters. The use of such weapons is presented as a dangerous global precedent, with Ukraine appealing to international partners for preventive pressure on Moscow to avoid further escalation and the prolongation of the conflict. Ukraine states it is bolstering its air defenses and will respond to any Russian strikes.
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The Unmanned Systems Forces of Ukraine conducted an overnight operation on May 23, striking the Russian frigate Admiral Essen for the fourth time since early March. This latest attack, confirmed by the commander of the Unmanned Systems Forces, also targeted other Russian military and energy infrastructure, including a missile corvette and vital oil terminals and storage sites in Novorossiysk. Previous strikes on the Admiral Essen, occurring in March and April, reportedly damaged its superstructure, radar, and bow sections, potentially impairing its ability to sail independently. Novorossiysk has become a focal point for Ukrainian long-range strikes, combining its naval base with significant energy export facilities.
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Since the start of the year, Ukraine has liberated 590 square kilometers of occupied territory, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced. This territorial gain, coupled with increased elimination of Russian personnel and sanctions, is intended to compel Russia toward diplomacy. Zelensky discussed intelligence on Russia’s plans with European leaders, emphasizing Ukraine’s stronger position and its efforts to ensure Europe’s voice is heard in peace negotiations. While Ukraine awaits a response from the U.S. regarding meeting formats, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged that U.S.-brokered peace talks remain on pause, with the U.S. prepared to facilitate productive discussions if an opportunity arises.
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In a significant operation, Ukraine’s SBU Alpha special forces successfully targeted an FSB headquarters in occupied Kherson Oblast. This strike resulted in the deaths and injuries of approximately 100 Russian troops and also led to the destruction of a valuable Pantsir-S1 air defense system. The action underscores Ukraine’s ongoing efforts to disrupt Russian military infrastructure and logistics in occupied territories, continuing a pattern of strikes on Russian military targets.
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John Q. Hosedrinker