In 2024, Ukraine domestically produced 30% of the military equipment used by its forces, a significant increase driven by the ongoing conflict with Russia. This surge in domestic production complements Western military aid, which, despite billions in support, has been insufficient to fully counter Russia’s superior military size and equipment expenditure. The growth includes the creation of new weaponry, such as naval drones and ballistic missiles, and the establishment of facilities by Western defense contractors within Ukraine. This domestic manufacturing capability is increasingly vital given potential future uncertainties in the supply of Western military aid.
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Since Ukraine’s August 6th incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast, over 38,000 Russian troops and 1,000 pieces of equipment have been lost, along with over 700 captured soldiers. Ukraine initially seized approximately 1,300 square kilometers, though intense fighting has reduced this control. The conflict also involves approximately 12,000 North Korean troops, with over 3,000 reported killed or wounded, highlighting the challenges of unfamiliar terrain and modern warfare. Ukraine intends to leverage the occupied territory in future negotiations.
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Ukraine halted Russian gas transit through its pipelines to Europe, ending a pre-war agreement and citing national security concerns. This decision, which follows Russia’s drastic reduction of gas supplies to Europe since the war began, deprives Russia of a key market and aligns with Europe’s plan to phase out Russian gas entirely. While impacting countries like Moldova and potentially causing further hardship in Transnistria, the move is seen by some as a victory against Russian energy blackmail. The cessation of transit comes amid ongoing conflict and accusations that Russia uses energy as a weapon.
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In a New Year’s Eve attack, Russia launched 111 drones targeting Ukrainian cities. Ukrainian air defenses successfully intercepted most, but one civilian was killed and damage inflicted. President Zelensky expressed condolences and gratitude to the military and emergency services for their tireless efforts. The successful defense involved the downing of 63 drones and the disruption of 46 decoys.
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In 2024, Ukraine facilitated 11 prisoner exchanges, resulting in the release of 1,358 Ukrainian prisoners of war, exceeding 2023’s total by 356 individuals. This brings the total number of released POWs since the full-scale invasion to 3,956. A significant exchange on December 30th alone freed 189 captives, including defenders from various key battle locations. President Zelensky confirmed these figures, emphasizing the personal significance of each return.
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An investigation by the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ 3rd Assault Brigade uncovered evidence of Russian soldiers, under the orders of Oleg Igorevych Rudakov, targeting and harming civilians in Nevske, Luhansk region. Intercepted communications reveal Rudakov directing the killing and torture of civilians and the destruction of civilian vehicles. This follows a pattern of Russian forces violating international humanitarian law, as evidenced by a separate incident in Toretsk where two civilians were killed. The collected evidence, including phone recordings and radio transmissions, will be used as potential evidence in international war crimes proceedings.
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Leaked Russian military documents reveal 160 prioritized targets in Japan and South Korea, including both military and civilian infrastructure. These targets, detailed in training materials from 2008-2014, range from airfields and naval bases to nuclear power plants and transportation networks. Targeting civilian infrastructure in this manner would constitute a war crime. While the documents are dated, an expert suggests the core strategic elements likely remain relevant to current Russian planning.
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In his New Year’s address, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy declared 2025 the year to end Russia’s invasion, emphasizing Ukraine’s commitment to securing peace through its own efforts and continued US support. This follows a year of significant Russian territorial gains—nearly 4,000 square kilometers in 2024 alone—and the termination of a key gas transit deal with Russia. A Russian drone strike on Kyiv on January 1st further underscored the ongoing conflict. The upcoming US presidential administration’s stance on aid to Ukraine remains a critical factor in the coming year.
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Following the expiration of a key transit deal, Ukraine halted the flow of Russian natural gas through its territory to Europe. This expected, yet symbolically significant move comes after Europe significantly reduced its reliance on Russian gas. While Ukraine will lose approximately $800 million annually in transit fees, and Gazprom faces a near $5 billion loss in sales, Europe has prepared for this scenario by securing alternative supply routes and boosting LNG imports. Despite some potential short-term price fluctuations, major disruptions are deemed unlikely due to these preparations and a mild start to winter.
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Gazprom will halt natural gas supplies to Moldova’s Transnistria region starting January 1, 2025, citing unpaid debts by Moldovagaz. This decision, announced on December 28th, will reduce gas supplies to zero cubic meters per day until further notice. While Moldova has secured alternative gas supplies for its own consumption, Chișinău rejects responsibility for Transnistria’s debt and the termination further complicates already strained energy relations between Russia and Moldova. This action comes as Ukraine refuses to renew the transit agreement for Russian gas to Europe, effective January 1st, 2025.
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John Q. Hosedrinker