Donald Trump issued a warning to Vladimir Putin, urging an end to the “ridiculous war” in Ukraine or face increased sanctions, including high tariffs. Trump, claiming he’d do Putin a “big favor” by facilitating a settlement, threatened to impose significant economic penalties on Russia if negotiations fail. While the Kremlin expressed openness to dialogue, Putin’s conditions for negotiation—acceptance of Russian territorial gains and Ukraine’s exclusion from NATO—remain unchanged. This stronger stance from Trump, while potentially welcomed by Ukraine, necessitates concrete actions to effectively pressure Russia.
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Despite achieving key military objectives, including weakening the Ukrainian military and securing a land bridge to Crimea, President Putin is increasingly worried about the war’s negative economic consequences for Russia. High borrowing costs, intended to control inflation, have inadvertently hindered private investment, causing significant displeasure within the Kremlin. This economic strain has reportedly led some in Russia’s elite to push for negotiations to end the conflict. The war’s overall impact on Russia’s economy is now a major concern for Putin.
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Despite President Trump’s campaign promise to end the Ukraine war swiftly, his administration’s 100-day deadline set for Lt. Gen. Kellogg has been met with widespread skepticism. Experts, including those at the LSE IDEAS think tank, highlight fundamental disagreements between Russia and Ukraine regarding territorial claims and NATO membership as major obstacles to a quick resolution. While the Trump administration aims for a “sustainable” peace, Russia shows little interest in compromise beyond Ukraine’s neutrality and the recognition of Russian territorial gains, a scenario unacceptable to Kyiv. The conflict’s future trajectory remains uncertain, hinging on whether negotiations can bridge these deep divides.
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Verified drone footage and multiple sources reveal that Russia is deploying injured soldiers, many requiring crutches, into front-line combat near Pokrovsk. These “crutch battalions,” part of the 20th Combined Arms Army, are used in infantry assaults deemed more effective than mechanized operations despite incurring heavy casualties from Ukrainian drone strikes. This practice underscores Russia’s severe manpower shortage and inability to replace combat losses, which reportedly reached 434,000 in 2024 alone, according to Ukrainian General Oleksandr Syrskyi. The Kremlin’s increasing reliance on visibly wounded soldiers highlights the failing regeneration of combat-effective units.
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President Duda, speaking at the Davos Ukrainian Breakfast, asserted that a lasting peace in Ukraine necessitates Russia’s unequivocal respect for international law and Ukrainian sovereignty, not merely negotiations initiated by Russia. He argued against strategies focused on incentivizing Putin to negotiate, instead advocating for a scenario where Putin is compelled to seek peace. This, Duda stated, requires a global solution reflecting the war’s global implications. Ultimately, Duda’s vision involves Putin actively pleading for negotiations, underscoring the need for a Ukrainian-favorable outcome.
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The Royal Navy shadowed the Russian spy ship Yantar, known for mapping critical underwater infrastructure, using submarines, warships, and aircraft. A British submarine surfaced near the Yantar to demonstrate its surveillance capabilities. This followed a November incident and a recent return to British waters, where the Yantar was closely escorted by the Royal Navy, highlighting heightened concerns about potential sabotage of undersea cables. The public release of this information serves as a deterrent against further Russian espionage targeting critical underwater infrastructure.
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In the Kursk region, Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) repelled an eight-hour attack by North Korean soldiers, resulting in 21 enemy deaths and 40 injuries. The SSO, supported by infantry and snipers, utilized small arms and grenade launchers to fend off the assault, as documented in a released video. After expending most of their ammunition, the Ukrainian forces executed a tactical withdrawal. This engagement follows the earlier capture of two North Korean soldiers fighting alongside Russian troops, confirming Pyongyang’s direct involvement in the conflict.
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President Trump issued a stark warning to Vladimir Putin, threatening significantly increased taxes, tariffs, and sanctions on Russian goods sold to the U.S. and other nations if a peace deal regarding Ukraine isn’t reached swiftly. Despite past amicable relations with Putin, Trump emphasized the urgency of a resolution, claiming that Russia’s economy is failing and that a deal would benefit both sides. He reiterated his belief that the war could have been prevented under his presidency, asserting that he intends to pursue a solution, whether “easy” or “hard.” This marks Trump’s strongest stance yet on the conflict, following previous indications of potential further sanctions and discussions with both Putin and Zelenskyy.
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Two years after Canada announced the unprecedented seizure of US$26 million from sanctioned Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich, the government has yet to initiate legal proceedings for forfeiture. This delay stems from complexities in proving direct ownership, potentially necessitating compensation to Abramovich under a 1991 investment protection agreement. The government’s cautious approach, considered a landmark case with international implications, contrasts with other G7 nations’ methods of utilizing frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine. Despite freezing roughly $140 million in Russian assets, including a large cargo plane, legal hurdles and disputes hinder their transfer to Ukraine.
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President Trump has tasked Keith Kellogg with ending the war in Ukraine within 100 days, a goal met with widespread skepticism. Kellogg’s appointment is seen as a precursor to Trump personally overseeing peace negotiations, though Russia’s lack of cooperation and concerns about potential concessions by Ukraine cast doubt on success. Experts like John Bolton worry Trump might pressure Ukraine into unfavorable deals, while others note the Kremlin’s immediate dismissal of Kellogg’s proposed peace plan as a negative sign. Despite these challenges, Trump remains committed to a negotiated settlement, potentially involving a meeting with Putin and leveraging sanctions as leverage.
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John Q. Hosedrinker