Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced Russia will end its self-imposed moratorium on deploying intermediate- and short-range nuclear missiles, citing the US’s global deployment of similar weapons. This decision follows a recent Russian missile test and is presented as a retaliatory measure to US and UK arms supplies to Ukraine. The US plans to deploy long-range missiles in Germany in 2026, a move defended by Germany but criticized by Russia as a significant threat. This escalation reverses decades of arms control agreements, raising concerns about a new arms race and global instability.
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Leaked Russian military documents from 2013-2014, obtained by the Financial Times, detail target lists for a potential war with Japan and South Korea, including 160 sites such as nuclear power plants and key infrastructure. These plans, focusing on disrupting troop movements, highlight Russia’s strategic concerns about its eastern borders and potential vulnerabilities in a conflict with NATO. The documents, originating from the Russian Armed Forces’ Combined Arms Academy, also reveal insights into Russian nuclear weapons doctrine and wargame scenarios involving China and Europe. The targeting of civilian infrastructure, such as power plants and bridges, suggests a willingness to engage in widespread destruction. The FT notes that the plans’ overestimation of Russian missile capabilities is now evident.
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On December 31st, over two dozen trucks carrying 500 tonnes of Ukrainian wheat, the first shipment under the Grain from Ukraine program, will arrive in Syria. This flour will provide free food for approximately 167,000 Syrians for one month. This initial delivery fulfills a promise to bolster Syrian food security, with the potential for significantly larger future shipments. The program has already sent 23,000 tonnes of maize to Mozambique and Malawi.
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A drone attack on December 31st ignited a fire at an oil depot in Yartsevo, Russia’s Smolensk region, approximately 500 km from Kursk. Smolensk Governor Vasily Anokhin confirmed the incident, attributing the fire to drone debris causing a fuel spill. This attack, one of several recent Ukrainian strikes targeting Russian oil infrastructure, aims to disrupt Russia’s war effort by reducing oil production, which has fallen to its lowest level since 2005. The use of long-range weapons in these deep strikes is enabled by President Biden’s authorization.
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For the first time globally, a Ukrainian Magura V5 maritime drone successfully destroyed a Russian Mi-8 helicopter. The attack, carried out by DIU’s Group 13 on December 31st near Cape Tarkhankut, utilized R-73 SeeDragon missiles. A second Russian helicopter was also hit but managed to return to base. This successful strike follows reports of Ukrainian Magura V5 drones being equipped with air-to-air missiles in May 2024.
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Former Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis warns that Russia’s hybrid attacks against NATO, encompassing sabotage, cyberattacks, and assassination attempts, “look like war.” He stresses the urgent need for NATO to establish clear red lines and define retaliatory measures to deter further aggression. Landsbergis expresses concern that NATO’s current response is insufficiently swift and decisive, potentially emboldening Russia. He suggests that a sufficiently severe hybrid attack could even trigger an Article 5 response.
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Recent reports indicate a Ukrainian drone offensive forced a Russian retreat from the outskirts of Kupiansk, a strategically important railroad hub in the Kharkiv region. This withdrawal, confirmed by the Kremlin-affiliated Rybar Telegram channel, is attributed to disrupted supply lines caused by the drone attacks. The Russian offensive continues elsewhere along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, however, and both sides are simultaneously bolstering their drone production capabilities. This highlights the increasing importance of unmanned aerial vehicles in the ongoing conflict.
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Russia has definitively declined any invitation to the Global Peace Summit, citing Ukraine’s unwillingness to compromise on its 1991 borders and the complete withdrawal of Russian troops. Ukraine, aiming to hold the summit before the 2024 U.S. presidential election, continues preparations, despite delays. While initially suggesting Russia’s presence was a non-starter, Zelenskyy later indicated a willingness to invite Russia, though he believes Putin is uninterested in peace. Ukraine’s plan involves a multi-point peace proposal, contingent on a globally-supported framework.
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A new decree mandates the development of a law expelling illegal migrants from Russia by April 30, 2025. This measure excludes those legally residing in the country. The decree notably impacts residents of occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast lacking Russian passports, who will be considered foreigners from January 1, 2025, and subject to expulsion after exceeding the 90-day visa-free limit. This effectively forces the displacement of a significant portion of the population in this area.
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Ukraine will receive $15 billion in U.S. aid, secured by future revenues from frozen Russian assets, as part of a larger G7 initiative. This funding, channeled through the World Bank’s PEACE in Ukraine project, is earmarked for social and humanitarian needs. The agreement follows earlier disbursements under a $50 billion G7 loan program, with $1 billion already received from U.S. profits on frozen Russian assets. This initiative leverages Russian assets to fund Ukraine’s recovery, a move condemned by Russia as fraudulent.
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John Q. Hosedrinker