Leaked Russian military documents reveal 160 prioritized targets in Japan and South Korea, including both military and civilian infrastructure. These targets, detailed in training materials from 2008-2014, range from airfields and naval bases to nuclear power plants and transportation networks. Targeting civilian infrastructure in this manner would constitute a war crime. While the documents are dated, an expert suggests the core strategic elements likely remain relevant to current Russian planning.
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In his New Year’s address, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy declared 2025 the year to end Russia’s invasion, emphasizing Ukraine’s commitment to securing peace through its own efforts and continued US support. This follows a year of significant Russian territorial gains—nearly 4,000 square kilometers in 2024 alone—and the termination of a key gas transit deal with Russia. A Russian drone strike on Kyiv on January 1st further underscored the ongoing conflict. The upcoming US presidential administration’s stance on aid to Ukraine remains a critical factor in the coming year.
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Following the expiration of a key transit deal, Ukraine halted the flow of Russian natural gas through its territory to Europe. This expected, yet symbolically significant move comes after Europe significantly reduced its reliance on Russian gas. While Ukraine will lose approximately $800 million annually in transit fees, and Gazprom faces a near $5 billion loss in sales, Europe has prepared for this scenario by securing alternative supply routes and boosting LNG imports. Despite some potential short-term price fluctuations, major disruptions are deemed unlikely due to these preparations and a mild start to winter.
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Gazprom will halt natural gas supplies to Moldova’s Transnistria region starting January 1, 2025, citing unpaid debts by Moldovagaz. This decision, announced on December 28th, will reduce gas supplies to zero cubic meters per day until further notice. While Moldova has secured alternative gas supplies for its own consumption, Chișinău rejects responsibility for Transnistria’s debt and the termination further complicates already strained energy relations between Russia and Moldova. This action comes as Ukraine refuses to renew the transit agreement for Russian gas to Europe, effective January 1st, 2025.
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Russia’s gas transit through Ukraine will cease on January 1st, 2024, marking the end of a long-standing energy relationship. This closure, coinciding with the expiration of a transit deal, has minimal expected market impact due to Europe’s diversification of gas sources following the Ukraine war. While the EU’s reduced reliance on Russian gas caused economic challenges, including inflation and a cost-of-living crisis, alternative suppliers have mitigated potential disruptions. The pipeline’s closure carries significant geopolitical weight, reflecting Russia’s diminished influence in the European energy market and Gazprom’s substantial financial losses.
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Following a previously agreed-upon October 2024 agreement, Russian border guards withdrew from the Agarak checkpoint on the Armenia-Iran border on January 1, 2025, leaving Armenian forces in sole control. This marks a significant step in Armenia’s reduced reliance on Russian security, following a similar Russian withdrawal from Zvartnots International Airport in Yerevan five months prior. The Russian presence at Agarak dated back to 1991. This action underscores Armenia’s broader shift away from its longstanding close relationship with Russia.
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On New Year’s Day, Russia will cease gas exports to Europe via Ukrainian pipelines, ending a five-year transit agreement and marking a significant geopolitical shift. This halt, coupled with an impending cold snap, will severely test Europe’s gas reserves, already depleted faster than in previous winters. The price of gas is rising, and the situation could stress-test European markets, particularly as countries face reduced wind power and increased heating demand. While some countries, like Slovakia, pressure Ukraine to renegotiate, Ukraine refuses a deal benefiting Russia financially.
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In its December 31st report, the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces estimated total Russian troop losses since February 24, 2022, at 789,550, including 1,610 casualties in the preceding day. This staggering figure is accompanied by the destruction of significant military hardware, encompassing over 9,600 tanks, more than 20,000 armored vehicles, and thousands of artillery systems and aircraft. The losses also include substantial numbers of drones, vehicles, and naval vessels.
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Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced Russia will end its self-imposed moratorium on deploying intermediate- and short-range nuclear missiles, citing the US’s global deployment of similar weapons. This decision follows a recent Russian missile test and is presented as a retaliatory measure to US and UK arms supplies to Ukraine. The US plans to deploy long-range missiles in Germany in 2026, a move defended by Germany but criticized by Russia as a significant threat. This escalation reverses decades of arms control agreements, raising concerns about a new arms race and global instability.
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Leaked Russian military documents from 2013-2014, obtained by the Financial Times, detail target lists for a potential war with Japan and South Korea, including 160 sites such as nuclear power plants and key infrastructure. These plans, focusing on disrupting troop movements, highlight Russia’s strategic concerns about its eastern borders and potential vulnerabilities in a conflict with NATO. The documents, originating from the Russian Armed Forces’ Combined Arms Academy, also reveal insights into Russian nuclear weapons doctrine and wargame scenarios involving China and Europe. The targeting of civilian infrastructure, such as power plants and bridges, suggests a willingness to engage in widespread destruction. The FT notes that the plans’ overestimation of Russian missile capabilities is now evident.
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John Q. Hosedrinker