In response to a January 15th Russian missile and drone attack on Ukraine, two Norwegian F-35 fighter jets, based in Poland, were deployed for the first time to actively defend Polish airspace. This action underscores NATO’s commitment to its eastern flank, following a previous instance of Russian ordnance entering Polish airspace. Poland simultaneously announced an increase in its air force readiness, deploying additional fighter jets and enhancing ground defenses. This escalation comes despite previous advice for restraint regarding airspace violations and despite differing opinions on the appropriate response to such incursions.
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Ukraine launched its most extensive air offensive yet, striking multiple Russian regions with drones and missiles over 1000 kilometers from the border. The sophisticated attacks, utilizing decoys to overwhelm defenses, targeted military and industrial sites including oil refineries and airbases. This demonstrates Ukraine’s growing long-range capabilities and reliance on domestically produced drones and missiles, a shift driven partly by Western hesitancy to authorize strikes within Russia. These attacks are not only disrupting Russian logistics but also undermining the Kremlin’s narrative of invincibility and bolstering Ukrainian morale.
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A Russian court sentenced Captain Igor Pashkov, an air defense officer, to nearly three years imprisonment for the October 2023 downing of a Russian Mi-8 helicopter in Crimea. Pashkov mistakenly identified the helicopter as a Ukrainian drone, resulting in the deaths of three crew members. He confessed to the error, which involved misinterpreting reports of a low-flying target despite subsequent clarification that it was a friendly helicopter. The fatal missile was launched from a Tor-M2DT system.
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A French military aircraft, conducting a NATO observation flight near suspected Russian damage to submarine cables, experienced a radar jamming attempt and illumination by fire control radar. This aggressive action, confirmed by the French Armed Forces, highlights Russia’s active response despite the lack of identified suspicious vessels during the mission. The French crew’s professional conduct prevented escalation, likely due to the potential consequences of attacking a NATO aircraft. The incident follows the suspected damage to an Estonia-Finland power cable, attributed to a Russian vessel.
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In December 2024, a group of Russian diplomats participating in a public tour of the British Parliament briefly entered a restricted area of the House of Lords before being apprehended by security. Parliamentary officials suspect the intrusion was a deliberate act of defiance. Subsequently, a formal warning was issued prohibiting all Russian diplomats and embassy staff from visiting Parliament, a ban already in place since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. This incident follows a history of strained UK-Russia relations, including prior expulsions of Russian personnel and restrictions on diplomatic activity.
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The U.K. announced a significant expansion of military aid to Ukraine, totaling £3 billion ($3.6 billion) this year, including 150 artillery barrels, a mobile air defense system, and an expanded international training initiative. This aid also includes the first release of £1.5 billion from a £2.26 billion G7 loan, repayable with frozen Russian assets, for Ukrainian procurement. Prime Minister Starmer’s visit to Kyiv culminated in a new 100-year partnership agreement with President Zelensky.
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Despite a 21% interest rate—the highest in years—Russia’s annual inflation surged to 9.5% in December, exceeding expectations. This increase, driven by substantial military spending exceeding $100 billion, affects all sectors, with food inflation particularly acute. The Central Bank’s attempts to curb inflation through interest rate hikes have proven ineffective, leaving the economy overheated and potentially vulnerable. Experts disagree on the likelihood of a broader economic crisis.
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Building on prior £12.8bn in aid and a yearly £3bn military commitment, the UK announced further support for Ukraine amidst a renewed Russian offensive. Russia’s recent advances in eastern Ukraine, particularly around Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and Chasiv Yar, mark their fastest territorial gains since the invasion began. This intensified conflict comes as the war enters its third year, with devastating human costs. The UK’s continued support includes supplying Storm Shadow missiles, and a new UK-Ukraine partnership agreement will soon be presented to Parliament.
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During Sir Keir Starmer’s Kyiv visit, a drone attack near the presidential palace underscored the ongoing threat faced by Ukraine. Discussions between Starmer and President Zelenskyy focused on continued UK support, including a new air defense system and increased troop training. While Starmer pledged long-term commitment and open consideration of future troop deployments, Zelenskyy highlighted challenges in securing NATO membership, particularly given potential shifts in US policy under a Trump administration. The visit served as a strong show of support amid ongoing conflict and uncertainty surrounding future peace negotiations.
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Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha firmly reiterated Ukraine’s commitment to NATO membership as the sole effective security guarantee, a position enshrined in its constitution and widely supported domestically. He dismissed alternative security arrangements, citing the Budapest Memorandum’s failure and arguing that ambiguous statuses only invite further aggression. Sybiha emphasized that NATO membership is crucial not only for Ukraine’s security but also for the broader transatlantic security architecture, referencing past failures to grant Ukraine a Membership Action Plan. He clarified that while bilateral agreements with allies are helpful, they cannot replace full NATO membership.
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John Q. Hosedrinker