During a visit to Poland, Keir Starmer urged continued, strengthened support for Ukraine, emphasizing the necessity of peace achieved on Ukraine’s terms. Discussions with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk focused on a proposed defense treaty and reaffirmed the UK’s commitment to NATO and Ukraine’s defense. Starmer’s trip follows a meeting with President Zelenskyy, resulting in a strengthened UK-Ukraine defense partnership. While declining to comment directly on Donald Trump’s potential impact, Starmer stressed the US’s crucial role in Ukraine’s defense.
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The Finnish Defence Forces are modernizing sniper training, incorporating lessons from the Ukraine conflict. This includes constructing a new 600-meter rifle range to address a current lack of long-range training facilities, and integrating “dynamic shooting” exercises involving moving targets. These changes aim to improve sniper effectiveness and are driven by increased demand for range use, both by the FDF and civilian users. The initiative also reflects a broader commitment to environmental sustainability in range development and operation.
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Following a Russian drone attack on Ukraine near the Romanian border on January 17th, Romanian airspace was violated. Two F-16 fighter jets were scrambled, and subsequent investigations uncovered potential drone impact traces near Plauroo. The Romanian Ministry of Defense condemned the attacks, maintained constant contact with allies, and continues monitoring the situation. The affected area is currently secured pending further investigation.
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On January 15-16, 2025, a French Atlantique 2 aircraft, on a NATO mission in the Baltic Sea, was targeted by a Russian S-400 air defense system’s radar, prompting condemnation from French authorities. This aggressive action, likely originating from Kaliningrad, occurred amidst heightened tensions and increased NATO patrols aimed at protecting critical infrastructure in the region following suspected Russian sabotage. The incident, while serious, underscores the ongoing geopolitical rivalry and risks of operating near Russian forces. The sophisticated S-400 system, with its advanced capabilities and long-range detection, plays a key role in Russia’s regional defense strategy.
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Following a trial, three lawyers who previously represented Alexei Navalny—Vadim Kobzev, Igor Sergunin, and Alexei Liptser—received prison sentences ranging from three and a half to five and a half years. The lawyers’ legal work involved defending Navalny against a 19-year prison sentence. These convictions are the latest in a series of crackdowns targeting those associated with the opposition leader. The sentences highlight the increasingly repressive environment for lawyers and activists in Russia.
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A second Ukrainian drone strike on January 14th further damaged the oil depot at the Kristal plant in Engels, Russia, causing a four-day fire. The attack, confirmed by Ukraine’s General Staff, resulted in the deaths of two emergency responders and significant damage to fuel storage, reducing Russian military logistical capabilities. Governor Busargin reported the fire is largely contained, despite ongoing emergency response efforts and citizen complaints about smoke. The strike reportedly destroyed three and damaged six fuel tanks, impacting nearly 800,000 tons of storage capacity.
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Russia’s war in Ukraine has resulted in the deaths of at least 6,083 elite soldiers, representing a significant loss of highly trained personnel. These casualties, spanning various elite units including Airborne Forces and GRU special forces, highlight the substantial human cost of the conflict. While initially relying heavily on these elite units, Russia has increasingly depended on mobilized personnel and convicts, indicating significant depletion of its trained military forces. The actual number of Russian casualties is likely considerably higher than open-source data suggests, potentially reaching as high as 196,000.
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A Russian court sentenced three lawyers—Vadim Kobzev, Alexei Liptser, and Igor Sergunin—to prison terms ranging from three and a half to five and a half years for allegedly aiding Alexei Navalny’s extremist activities. The lawyers, detained since October 2023, were convicted of facilitating the transmission of Navalny’s prison messages, enabling him to maintain a public presence even after his death. The ruling is viewed as part of Russia’s broader crackdown on dissent, with Navalny’s widow and international organizations condemning the sentences as politically motivated. All three lawyers received professional bans following their prison sentences.
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In response to a January 15th Russian missile and drone attack on Ukraine, two Norwegian F-35 fighter jets, based in Poland, were deployed for the first time to actively defend Polish airspace. This action underscores NATO’s commitment to its eastern flank, following a previous instance of Russian ordnance entering Polish airspace. Poland simultaneously announced an increase in its air force readiness, deploying additional fighter jets and enhancing ground defenses. This escalation comes despite previous advice for restraint regarding airspace violations and despite differing opinions on the appropriate response to such incursions.
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Ukraine launched its most extensive air offensive yet, striking multiple Russian regions with drones and missiles over 1000 kilometers from the border. The sophisticated attacks, utilizing decoys to overwhelm defenses, targeted military and industrial sites including oil refineries and airbases. This demonstrates Ukraine’s growing long-range capabilities and reliance on domestically produced drones and missiles, a shift driven partly by Western hesitancy to authorize strikes within Russia. These attacks are not only disrupting Russian logistics but also undermining the Kremlin’s narrative of invincibility and bolstering Ukrainian morale.
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John Q. Hosedrinker