By John Q. Hosedrinker 
On July 17th, Ukrainian forces, as part of a broader operation targeting the Russian-occupied Crimean Peninsula, launched strikes against twelve vessels belonging to Russia’s shadow fleet in the Black Sea. These strikes, which included nine dry cargo ships, one oil tanker, one gas carrier, and one tugboat, are part of a sustained effort to degrade Russia’s ability to circumvent international sanctions through its shadow fleet. In addition to naval operations, explosions and fires were reported across Crimea, impacting railway infrastructure and military sites. This offensive continues a trend of Ukrainian strikes aimed at diminishing Moscow’s war-fighting capabilities by targeting its logistical and economic support networks.
Read the original article here
Ukrainian drones have recently achieved a significant victory in the Black Sea, striking a dozen Russian “shadow fleet” vessels as Crimea itself came under a large-scale attack. This concerted effort by Ukraine demonstrates a strategic focus on crippling Russia’s economic and logistical capabilities, hitting both its export and refining capacity, which is a particularly commendable outcome. The damage inflicted on these ships, especially those involved in transporting oil, directly impacts Russia’s ability to generate revenue from its most crucial export.
The implications of these strikes extend beyond the immediate destruction of vessels. By targeting the storage capacity for oil, Ukraine is forcing Russia into a difficult position. Without adequate storage, Russia will likely face the grim choice of either dumping oil onto the ground to prevent well shutoffs or shutting down production altogether. The prospect of Russia being forced to shut down its oil wells signifies a potentially devastating blow to its national budget, a consequence that could have far-reaching economic ramifications for the Kremlin.
It’s fascinating to observe how these attacks are meticulously executed. Reports indicate the drones targeted the bridge and stern of the vessels, suggesting a deliberate approach to maximize damage and disable functionality rather than necessarily sinking them outright. This is a smart tactic, as disabling these ships, without causing an environmental disaster, achieves the primary objective of disrupting Russian operations. The fact that so many vessels have been hit, with some estimates pointing to around 150, raises the question of why Russia hasn’t implemented more robust defensive measures.
One would expect that with such a significant portion of their fleet being targeted, Russia would have taken more decisive action by now. Perhaps moving these ships away from the conflict zone or having their Black Sea fleet actively try to justify its existence would seem like logical countermeasures. However, the fact that these ships are being repeatedly spotted and destroyed suggests that their attempts at being “shadowy” have been anything but successful. They are, in essence, becoming blurry shadows on sonar radars as they lie at the bottom of the Black Sea, a stark contrast to their intended clandestine operations.
There’s a sense that Russia might be caught in a dilemma. While they are clearly not stupid and likely want to avoid the global outcry that would follow an environmental catastrophe, their inability to effectively counter these drone attacks is striking. The ships were essential for feeding the conflict zone with necessary supplies, and it seems they cannot simply be hidden or moved to safety. This predicament appears to extend to their refineries and depots as well, leaving them in a corner, absorbing blows without a meaningful retaliatory response.
This situation could be interpreted as Russia knowing it’s on a losing trajectory but being unwilling to openly admit it. It’s almost as if the Black Sea has become an inland sea for them, with no real escape routes for their fleet. The effectiveness of Ukraine’s air defense neutralization efforts is evident, allowing them to reach almost any location within Russia. The eastern ports might be the only viable option for Russia to shelter its remaining assets, but even these are likely vulnerable.
Interestingly, the majority of these targeted ships are reportedly suffering serious damage rather than being sunk. This is a strategic nuance that benefits Ukraine. While a sunk ship is certainly a loss for Russia, a damaged vessel becomes a constant resource drain for repairs. Furthermore, if Ukraine eventually retakes Crimea, these ships, along with their oil cargo, could become valuable assets for Ukraine, effectively turning a Russian resource into a Ukrainian one. Imagine the irony of Ukraine inheriting a fleet of oil tankers, primed to explode, perhaps even on their way to the Kerch Bridge. The scale of this attack, coupled with the ongoing offensive in Crimea, paints a picture of a Ukraine systematically dismantling Russia’s war-fighting capacity.