By John Q. Hosedrinker 
According to sources familiar with US assessments of a recent Beijing summit, Chinese leader Xi Jinping told US President Donald Trump that Russian leader Vladimir Putin may come to regret his invasion of Ukraine. These remarks, reportedly going further than previous discussions on the topic, emerged as Putin prepares for a summit with Xi. During the same meeting, Trump suggested that the US, China, and Russia should cooperate to challenge the International Criminal Court.
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The notion that Chinese President Xi Jinping conveyed to former US President Donald Trump that Russian President Vladimir Putin might “regret” the invasion of Ukraine is quite a striking thought, and it’s fascinating to unpack what might lie beneath such a statement, if it indeed occurred.
From China’s perspective, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine has, in a peculiar way, presented them with an opportunity to shine. While the United States and Russia have been embroiled in their own geopolitical struggles, China has largely maintained a stance of relative quietude, allowing it to be perceived as the more stable and trustworthy global power. The implication is that if China can simply avoid escalating tensions, particularly over Taiwan, it stands to gain significant international standing.
Therefore, if Xi did speak with Trump, the message likely wasn’t one of genuine concern for Putin, but rather a strategic nudge. It’s as if Xi was telling Trump, “Your friend is in a bit of a pickle, and it’s not going well for us either. We need you to step up and help manage this situation because it’s impacting the broader geopolitical landscape.” The suggestion that Trump might have been encouraged to “work harder to bail our bud out” paints a picture of a complex, perhaps even transactional, relationship between these leaders.
The idea that Xi might have characterized Putin’s actions as a significant misstep, suggesting a need to distance oneself from the endeavor, is also telling. Coupled with the mention of Trump suggesting cooperation against the International Criminal Court, it hints at a potential alignment of interests among these leaders, albeit for different reasons.
However, it’s crucial to approach such reports with a degree of skepticism. The source of such information can be elusive, and the interpretation of spoken words, especially between political leaders with complex agendas, can be easily misinterpreted or exaggerated. The word “regret” itself might not be the most accurate descriptor for Putin’s mindset. Perhaps “despondence” or a grim realization of the unintended consequences would be more fitting, given the protracted nature of the conflict and the significant human and economic costs.
The idea that Putin might already regret his decision is plausible. No leader likely anticipates a lengthy, bloody stalemate with minimal apparent gains after years of a “special military operation.” The reported stalemate, coupled with Ukraine’s effective use of drone strikes, certainly paints a picture of Russia facing mounting challenges.
Yet, admitting regret is a rare commodity among autocratic leaders. The immense ego and the perceived need to project strength often preclude any acknowledgment of error, even when the evidence suggests otherwise. This unwillingness to admit mistakes is a hallmark of many authoritarian regimes, where admitting fault could be seen as a sign of weakness.
It’s also worth considering that China has significantly benefited from the war economy and has been able to secure cheap oil from Russia. From this economic standpoint, Xi might have little genuine concern about the conflict continuing or even escalating, as it serves China’s strategic interests by making Russia more reliant on Beijing.
If Xi did indeed express that Putin “may regret” the invasion, and particularly if this was said before meeting with Putin days later, it could signal an attempt to engineer an “off-ramp” or discuss potential exit strategies for Russia. It might also be a way for China to gauge how much leverage it holds over Russia moving forward, perhaps even hinting at what it might demand in exchange for continued support.
The complexities of these relationships are further highlighted by the suggestion that Trump and his regime might even consider aiding Russia militarily if Ukraine begins to reclaim occupied territories. This, in itself, is a chilling prospect, underscoring the potential for a re-alignment of global powers.
Ultimately, whether Xi literally said Putin “may regret” the invasion or not, the underlying sentiment points to a recognition of the severe consequences of Russia’s actions. For leaders like Putin, legacy is paramount, and the protracted war in Ukraine is unlikely to be remembered as a triumphant chapter. While they may not openly admit to regret, the reality of their situation, and the potential for future repercussions, is likely not lost on them. The question remains, however, whether such an observation, even if true, would sway their actions or simply serve as another piece of strategic communication in the intricate dance of global politics.