By John Q. Hosedrinker 
Long-range strikes by the SSU’s Special Operations Centre Alpha have significantly degraded Russia’s air defense capabilities in 2025. Notably, half of Russia’s modern Pantsir surface-to-air artillery and missile systems, valued between US$15 million and US$20 million each, were destroyed. This strategic action aims to dismantle enemy air defenses, creating corridors for Ukrainian forces to strike targets deep within Russian rear areas, including military bases and airfields. The overall value of Russian air defense systems eliminated by Alpha in 2025 is estimated at approximately US$4 billion.
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The recent announcement from Ukraine’s Security Service, suggesting that Ukrainian forces have successfully destroyed half of Russia’s Pantsir missile systems in 2025, presents a truly remarkable development in the ongoing conflict. If these claims hold significant water, it points to massive vulnerabilities in Russia’s air defense capabilities. Imagine the gaping holes that would appear in their aerial shield, potentially emboldening long-range strike campaigns in the future. It’s certainly a welcome piece of news, a step towards pushing back against what many perceive as an unwelcome and destructive presence. One might even say Russia was caught with its *Pants*irs down, a rather fitting, albeit punny, observation given the circumstances.
It’s important to contextualize Ukraine’s current capabilities by looking back at its history within the Soviet Union. Before 1991, Ukraine didn’t operate as an independent military entity; it was a constituent republic of the USSR. Yet, throughout that era, Ukrainians were consistently a significant part of the Soviet military machine. As the second-largest republic after Russia, in terms of both population and industrial might, Ukraine contributed a substantial number of conscripts. Furthermore, a considerable number of high-ranking Soviet officers hailed from Ukrainian origins.
Despite being geographically smaller than Russia, Ukraine was far from a mere source of manpower. It was one of the most militarized republics within the USSR. At various times, Ukrainians made up an impressive 20-25% of the total Soviet Armed Forces, with even higher percentages during periods like World War II. The republic was a significant producer of military officers, including many who achieved the ranks of general and marshal. This heightened militarization was largely due to Ukraine’s strategic location on the western border of the Soviet Union, a region that historically hosted a vast amount of Soviet military infrastructure.
This rich military heritage and inherent capability are crucial to understanding Ukraine’s current resilience. It’s a nation with a deep-seated history of defending its autonomy and resisting foreign domination, often through the effective use of irregular and volunteer formations. The prospect of Russia attempting to replace its lost Pantsir systems, especially if the Ukrainian claims are accurate, would likely prove exceptionally difficult, if not impossible, for them. This sentiment is echoed by many who express a strong desire to see Russia defeated, with some even suggesting that Putin’s days are numbered. The fact that Ukraine, the invaded nation, has been unable to be fully recaptured by Russia is, for many, a far more significant point than any specific military hardware losses.
One might wonder why Russia isn’t deploying a wider array of its air defense systems. The Pantsir systems, in particular, seem to be perceived as having less robust capabilities and being more susceptible to drone attacks. While the Ukrainian Security Service is making a bold claim about destroying half of Russia’s Pantsir systems, a more nuanced perspective might suggest that around 25% of *deployed* Pantsir systems have been eliminated. There’s a healthy skepticism, of course, about relying solely on Ukrainian media, with some comparing it to the old Soviet media practices. Many of these systems, one might speculate, could be positioned to “protect” high-value targets like Putin’s residences, which, while tempting targets, might not always represent the most strategically impactful objectives.
The situation is, admittedly, a bit more complex than a simple percentage. It appears that while Russia might be producing 30 to 40 Pantsir systems annually, their losses in 2025 alone might have ranged from 95 to 110 units. This significant attrition, coupled with the substantial production rate, creates a substantial deficit. These systems are not cheap, and these cumulative losses would undoubtedly create significant gaps in the protection of more advanced systems like the S-400, and ultimately, the critical strategic assets they are meant to safeguard. The sheer volume of visual evidence, with compilations showing 15-20 Pantsir systems being destroyed, lends credibility to these assertions. The small size of modern drones makes them incredibly difficult for older systems to track and engage effectively, making it seem like Russia was indeed caught off guard.
The effectiveness of these smaller drones is a key factor. There’s evidence suggesting that older Soviet-era systems like the Strela-10, and possibly even Tor systems, struggle to even register simple observation drones. This implies that simply deploying different AA systems might not be a sufficient solution unless accompanied by a massive deployment of anti-aircraft guns and missiles working in concert. Ukraine’s approach of providing video confirmation for each successful strike, with geolocation and logging of attack sites, stands in contrast to the often unsubstantiated claims made by Russia. The imperative for Ukraine is to eliminate these systems before Russia can redeploy them to more critical battlefield locations.
This conflict is increasingly becoming a war of attrition and economics. Ukraine’s strategy appears to be forcing Russia to expend its expensive missiles on low-cost drones, a tactic akin to Ukraine being compelled to use expensive AMRAAM missiles against cheaper Shahed drones. This economic strain on Russia’s resources is a significant component of the war. The phrasing of the initial statement, “Go for the other 50% guys! 👌,” while perhaps a bit informal, certainly captures the enthusiastic and determined spirit of Ukrainian forces. Some have even questioned if the comment was AI-generated due to its phrasing, a sentiment echoed by others who note the slightly awkward readability, suggesting AI translation or generation.
The global support Russia receives, particularly from countries like China, India, Iran, and North Korea, is a critical factor that prevents the conflict from concluding sooner. Without this wholesale support, the war would likely have already reached a different outcome. This brings us back to the core assertion: the significant degradation of Russia’s Pantsir missile systems, as reported by Ukraine’s Security Service. It’s a development that, if fully realized, signifies a critical blow to Russia’s air defense capabilities and a testament to Ukraine’s evolving and effective defensive strategies.