By John Q. Hosedrinker 
According to a new report from the Council on Criminal Justice, data from 35 American cities reveals a 21% decrease in the homicide rate from 2024 to 2025, resulting in approximately 922 fewer homicides. The report, released on Thursday, also tracked 13 crimes and found declines in 11 categories, including carjackings and shoplifting, while drug crimes saw a small increase and sexual assaults remained stable. Experts suggest that the drop in homicides and other crimes extends beyond the surveyed cities, though the underlying causes remain unclear, with both Democrats and Republicans claiming credit for the trend.
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Homicide rate declines sharply in dozens of US cities, a new report shows. This is certainly a headline that grabs your attention, especially considering the backdrop of the past few years. We’ve seen a spike in homicides during the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021, making the situation seem even more alarming.
The good news is that since 2022, there’s been a clear trend: homicides have been declining each year. This isn’t just a blip or a sudden reversal; it’s part of a multi-year downward trend, which gives us some reason to be optimistic. The most recent data is particularly striking, showing a significant year-over-year decrease. While the scale of the decline is notable, it’s also important to remember that it’s built upon the earlier decreases we’ve been observing.
Despite these positive developments, it’s essential to keep perspective. Even with the decline, homicide rates in many cities remain above what we saw before 2020. This suggests we still have work to do, but the direction is encouraging.
Of course, a crucial point here is that researchers, with their data and analysis, are documenting the trend but they are not able to definitively pinpoint a single, specific cause. It’s complex, and that’s okay. The data is what it is, and we can still learn from it.
Now, it wouldn’t be surprising if some political actors try to claim credit or make something out of it. We might hear arguments about specific policies or actions being responsible. However, it’s crucial to acknowledge the broader picture and the long-term trends involved. The reality is that this decline is likely related to a combination of factors, including perhaps changes in environmental factors like the elimination of leaded gasoline or shifts in social dynamics.
We’ve seen this downward trajectory for a while now, actually. Homicide rates have been trending down nationwide for around two decades, despite events like increases in active shooter incidents and mass shootings.
The political framing of this is going to be interesting, I’m sure. We can almost anticipate the narratives: if homicides go up, it’s the fault of the current administration; if they go down, someone else will take the credit, or the information itself will be disputed. It is what it is and will not stop what is coming.
Some might suggest that an increase in government actions or certain types of “state-sanctioned violence” might skew the numbers, which can lead to misinterpretations if we don’t look closely at the data. I’m talking about ICE, DHS, etc.
There’s also the matter of resources. It’s worth considering whether a lack of access to certain things, like bullets, might play a role in reducing violence. We might also see things that are really tragic, like increased kidnappings, and it’s essential to keep in mind that state-sanctioned violence is still violence.
We’re also left with the question of whether the decrease in reported homicide numbers is fully accurate. Did the numbers drop because something really changed, or are we measuring things differently? It’s a complex puzzle.
What’s really fascinating is the larger context. Crime rates dropping, as they have been for a while, doesn’t always align with the way things are often portrayed. We are now heading towards possibly the lowest homicide rate ever recorded in the US, going back to 1900. It is likely that the homicide rate for 2025 will be about 4.0 per 100,000 residents. And that is an event.
It seems that this good news might be received with mixed feelings. Some will celebrate the decrease in crime, while others might view it through a political lens, using it to push an agenda. The truth is, it should be about people and human wellbeing.