By Matt Underwood Russia loses one million tons of fuel in September alone as strikes and sanctions converge, a staggering figure that highlights the complex challenges facing the Russian energy sector. It’s a situation that paints a picture of significant disruption, with a combination of factors contributing to this massive loss of fuel production.
The Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries, specifically, are a key part of this story. While precise numbers are always tricky to pin down, with some news outlets claiming up to 38% of Russian oil refining capacity is offline, the situation isn’t quite that simple. Considering that Russia can refine 327 million tons of oil annually, or roughly 6.5 million barrels per day, the impact of these attacks, targeting 16 refineries, is significant. Those 16 refineries alone account for 123 million tons of oil refining capacity per year, which means that 38% is essentially the upper limit of potential damage.
However, assessing the true extent of the damage requires looking at several key questions. Were the refineries operating at full capacity before the attacks? Was the damage complete or just partial? Have the repairs been made, or are they still affecting output? Publicly available information is limited, yet some conclusions can be drawn. During the 2024 campaign, most refineries were able to continue operating, at least in part, even after being attacked. Moreover, they were usually able to fully restore output within weeks. For example, the Volgograd refinery managed to fully repair the damage from multiple drone attacks in August and was back to full operations within a few weeks.
This year, however, we’re seeing more attacks on refineries compared to 2024. Furthermore, a critical factor comes into play: the availability of refinery parts. Many of these components are sourced from the West. With sanctions in place and increased demand, these parts are becoming harder and harder to obtain. This creates a compounding effect, making it more challenging to repair damaged infrastructure quickly and efficiently.
Adding to the existing problems, the coming winter presents its own set of obstacles. Cold weather is a major hurdle for unrefined petroleum. Keeping crude flowing smoothly becomes difficult in the best of conditions. This adds to the pressure on an already struggling refining system.
The nature of drone strikes themselves also needs considering. The problem with drones is that their small payloads limit the immediate damage caused. This means repairs may be quicker, and a relatively small percentage of drones actually getting through might indicate a problem for the Ukrainian strategic drone campaign. While the strategy is sound, refining oil has taken a huge hit in Russia because of drone attacks and lack of parts due to sanctions.
The broader context of the situation involves the potential long-term consequences. Sanctions targeting Russia’s energy sector and the strikes on refineries are two crucial aspects. The loss of fuel production can have ripple effects, affecting everything from the Russian military’s operational capabilities to the country’s overall economic stability.
The geopolitical implications are also worth considering. The loss of Russian oil production and refining capacity could affect the global energy market, especially in Europe, which has relied on Russian energy for years. The situation could increase the push for Europe to find alternative energy sources.
Finally, the one million tons of fuel lost is not just a number. It is a symptom of a larger problem. It shows how vulnerable the Russian energy infrastructure is to these attacks. And it highlights how much of Russia’s production capacity is out of service.