By Matt Underwood 
Deep strike: Ukrainian drones hit major Russian oil plants 1,300 km from front lines – that’s the headline, and it’s a significant one. It really drives home just how far Ukraine can now reach inside Russia, delivering what amounts to a harsh dose of reality to the enemy’s doorstep, or, more accurately, their gas station. It’s a testament to the ingenuity and determination of the Ukrainian forces. This isn’t just about military targets; it’s about disrupting the very fabric of Russia’s war machine, potentially forcing them to confront their own resource limitations and perhaps even start importing fuel again, which would be quite a reversal.
Recent Ukrainian drone strikes have stretched the boundaries of the conflict significantly. We’re talking about refineries located up to 1,300 kilometers away from the front lines being targeted. That’s an impressive feat of engineering and operational planning. It’s like a long-distance punch, delivered with precision and potentially devastating consequences. Considering that there are roughly thirty major oil refineries within Russia, with over twenty of them now within the range of current Ukrainian drones, this is a strategic game-changer. The fact that more than half of these refineries are considered vulnerable due to distance or exposure further underscores the scope of this evolving threat.
In the last month alone, at least seven major refineries have reportedly been hit. The locations mentioned – Ryazan, Ufa, Volgograd, and Leningrad Oblast, among others – paint a picture of widespread impact. This is not a localized skirmish; it’s a concerted effort to cripple key infrastructure across a vast territory. And, considering that over ten key Russian facilities have been directly hit since summer 2025, disrupting more than 20% of the nation’s refining capacity, we’re witnessing a serious dent in Russia’s ability to fuel its war efforts.
The implications of these strikes are numerous and far-reaching. This is where things start to get really interesting, and where we must consider the economic and logistical consequences. Of course, there’s the immediate impact on Russia’s fuel supply and refining capabilities. Beyond that, the strikes could potentially affect the cost of fuel, the operational readiness of the Russian military, and the overall economic stability of the country. The cumulative effect of these persistent attacks might begin to wear down Russia’s ability to wage war, forcing them to make tough choices about resource allocation and strategic priorities.
Now, the question of how sustainable this is for Russia arises. We’ve heard predictions of Russia’s imminent collapse for a long time, but the Russian war machine has, so far, continued to function. This isn’t to say that the strikes aren’t having an impact. They are. It’s more to say that Russia seems able to withstand a lot, due to their people’s tolerance of suffering and limited access to alternative information. But, as the old saying goes, even the toughest of adversaries have limits.
One key thing to remember is that wars aren’t just about numbers. Russia has been offering large sign-up bonuses and death benefits to keep volunteer numbers stable, and there have been other financial incentives. However, these kinds of measures can only go on for so long. Budgets have limits, manpower has limits, and even a nation like Russia, with its history of resilience, has its own limits. The real question is whether Russia will exhaust itself before Ukraine does.
The development of homegrown weapons, and their sale to other countries, is another factor that will only make things harder for Russia. The strategic situation is constantly evolving. With this in mind, It’s interesting to consider a famous author from the 1870s, who described the way Russians protest – or rather, their lack of protest. They might be unhappy, but real resistance is often minimal due to cultural factors. This speaks to a deeper understanding of the Russian psyche and how their government operates.
And, of course, there’s the role of propaganda. Most Russians receive information only from state-controlled media, and they are bombarded with a narrative that supports the war. This is another element that contributes to the war’s persistence. Putin has eliminated any opposition and anyone that threatens him falls out a window or has their plane blown up. This explains why it might take years of continuous attacks on refineries before Russia is unable to keep fighting.
It’s easy to understand why the refinery hits are expected to create some real change. As for how soon, that remains to be seen. But it is worth mentioning a recent poll where 68% of Russians want to end the war, even if it is a single poll. It’s a complex situation, a war of attrition, and a long game. It’s hard to say exactly what the future holds, but it is clear that Ukraine’s strategy of targeting Russian infrastructure is making a difference.