Finland’s Defence Forces are closely monitoring the Zapad-2025 military exercises conducted by Russia and Belarus amid heightened security concerns, as highlighted by General Janne Jaakkola. These exercises, occurring against the backdrop of Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine and efforts to destabilize Western nations, demonstrate Russia’s objectives and available resources. Jaakkola pointed out the potential for the exercises to be a basis for future actions, drawing parallels to the Zapad-21 exercises that preceded the war in Ukraine, while emphasizing the potential for “unexpected turns” during Zapad-2025. In response to the exercises, Poland and Latvia have already taken steps to close their borders with Belarus and Russia.
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On Monday, September 15th, American military officers observed the joint Russian-Belarusian military exercise Zapad-2025. Belarusian Defence Minister Viktor Khrenin welcomed the US officers, offering them access to view any aspect of the exercise, a gesture described as a surprise. The Belarusian Defence Ministry reported the presence of the US officers alongside representatives from 23 other countries, including NATO members. This event signals a potential warming of relations between the United States and Belarus, a close ally of Russia, amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
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During the Zapad-2025 exercises, Russia has deployed Iskander-M missile systems in the Kaliningrad region, positioning them within striking distance of several NATO countries. At least two launchers carrying 9M723 ballistic missiles were spotted near the Polish border, with a range of approximately 500 kilometers, putting nearly all of Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, parts of Estonia, and other areas within reach. The deployment, a part of exercises involving up to 30,000 troops, has prompted responses from NATO, including contingency plans and the Eastern Sentry mission, particularly after Russian drone violations. The Iskander’s ability to launch various missiles and its mobile nature pose significant challenges for detection and rapid repositioning.
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In response to upcoming joint Russian-Belarusian military exercises, “Zapad 2025,” Poland and its NATO allies will conduct large-scale military exercises within Poland. These exercises follow concerns that Zapad, as in 2021, may serve as a prelude to further Russian aggression. Poland’s robust response will include both Polish and NATO forces, mirroring the scale of the past year’s Steadfast Defender 24 exercises. This heightened military posture reflects Poland’s increased defense spending and commitment to NATO deterrence.
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President Zelensky warned of potential Russian military aggression this summer, disguised as joint military exercises with Belarus, citing historical precedent. These exercises, particularly Zapad 2025, could serve as cover for assembling offensive forces, mirroring the lead-up to the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi corroborated this assessment, highlighting the use of exercises for covert troop relocation and concentration. Zelensky’s concerns extend beyond Ukraine, with previous warnings of potential Russian offensives against NATO countries.
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John Q. Hosedrinker