Russia’s oil and gas revenue is anticipated to decrease by approximately 35% in November compared to the previous year, reaching roughly $6.6 billion, due to weaker crude prices and a stronger ruble. This decline, also reflected in a 7.4% decrease from October, places pressure on Russia’s budget, especially with elevated defense spending. For the first 11 months of 2025, oil and gas revenue is projected to total approximately $102 billion. Western sanctions, designed to limit Moscow’s war funding, have compounded the issue.
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A report from Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service indicates that numerous Russian regions are experiencing significant shortfalls in meeting their budget revenue targets, with many running deficit budgets. Kemerovo Oblast’s deficit has already surpassed projections, while Bashkortostan’s deficit has doubled the planned level. The Republic of Sakha, Yakutia, has also seen massive overspending, and Rostov Oblast is facing a substantial deficit despite initially planning for a surplus. These financial woes are attributed to Western sanctions impacting key industries like coal and a surge in one-off payments to volunteer soldiers.
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Following a devastating Russian attack on Kyiv that killed 30 and injured 172, Ukrainian President Zelensky declared the assault “deliberate terror” with no military justification. He called for increased Western sanctions and further “entirely justified” losses inflicted upon Russia for its aggression. Ukraine continues to launch successful long-range strikes on Russian military targets, including airfields and weapons factories, while simultaneously proposing an unconditional ceasefire that Russia continues to reject. Amidst escalating conflict and mounting Russian casualties, Kyiv is developing its own long-range weapons capabilities.
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A UTair flight from Moscow to Dubai made an emergency landing due to a hydraulic fluid issue, marking the fourth Russian airline incident in 2025 and the second for UTair in a week. This follows a recent trend of technical problems plaguing Russian airlines, attributed to Western sanctions limiting maintenance and parts supply, forcing “cannibalization” of aircraft. The resulting fleet reduction and increased incidents, coupled with a “red flag” designation from the ICAO, highlight significant safety concerns within Russian aviation. These issues are further exacerbated by reported fuel rationing and rising fuel costs.
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Three Russian oil refineries—Tuapse, Ilyich, and Novoshakhtinsk—have curtailed or halted production due to mounting losses stemming from Ukrainian drone strikes, Western sanctions, and reduced profit margins. These plants, operating at reduced capacity or facing temporary closures, are experiencing significant financial strain, selling fuel at a discount and incurring high interest rates. The resulting drop in fuel exports and revenue impacts the state budget, exacerbating existing economic pressures. This situation is further complicated by increased oil costs exceeding the profit threshold for independent refiners.
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John Q. Hosedrinker