Exhausted Ukrainian soldiers in the Kursk region report dwindling morale and a slow retreat against relentless Russian bombardment, despite using long-range weapons supplied by Western allies. Their orders are to hold the occupied territory until a change in US administration in January, hoping for new policy negotiations. This strategy, intended to divert Russian forces from other fronts, has yielded mixed results, with some soldiers questioning its effectiveness and expressing a desire to fight elsewhere. The soldiers also deny reports of significant North Korean troop deployments in the area.
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Donald Trump’s prospects in the upcoming election have plummeted dramatically, with Kamala Harris likely to secure victory, according to data scientist Thomas Miller from Northwestern University. This downturn comes after a Trump rally at Madison Square Garden, which was dominated by controversial figures, and led to the alienation of many potential voters. Miller’s model is based on prediction and betting markets, most notably the platform ‘PredictIt’. The prediction shows a significant swing towards Harris. Trump’s lead, which was previously 196 votes, has now reduced to just 80, with further losses anticipated.
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According to the final Times poll before the US election, Kamala Harris is set to become America’s first female president. The poll predicts Harris winning the “blue wall” battlegrounds of the north, as well as Nevada in the west, while Donald Trump is forecast to win Georgia and hold North Carolina. The two are evenly matched in Arizona. If these predictions hold, Harris would win the presidency by a margin of 276 electoral college votes to 262, making it the closest finish since 2000. Nonetheless, the poll falls within the margin of error for each of the states, leaving the race’s outcome uncertain.
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Photograph: Getty Images Oct 31st 2024 (published 5h ago) The US in brief’s team of editors will be giving The Economist ’s fastest analysis of the results, as they come in, on Tuesday November 5th. You can find that on our app and home page on election day.
John Q. Hosedrinker 
Matt Underwood