The fuel crisis gripping Russia has spread to over half of its administrative regions, stemming from escalated Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries, which have significantly reduced refining capacity. The Far East and occupied Crimea have been the hardest hit, with rationing and severe shortages, while central regions experience disruptions. The Russian government has downplayed the crisis, attributing it to logistical issues, and has responded by banning fuel exports and seeking support from Belarus and China. Experts predict the duration of the crisis depends on the frequency of future attacks on refineries, with hundreds of gas stations already closed across the country.
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Recent Ukrainian drone attacks have significantly impacted Russia’s oil refining capabilities, leading to a severe fuel shortage. As of late September, nearly 40% of Russia’s primary refining capacity was offline, with gasoline output dropping significantly and causing a roughly 20% shortfall in domestic demand. These outages are unprecedented, with drone strikes directly causing about 70% of the shutdowns, hitting over two dozen major refineries. The crisis has prompted the Kremlin to ban gasoline exports and drop import duties, while the public faces rationing and rising prices.
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Crimea has implemented new gasoline sales restrictions, limiting purchases to 30 liters per transaction effective immediately, following actions by the head of the peninsula’s administration, Sergey Aksyonov, on September 29. These measures intend to regulate fuel use and deter stockpiling, coinciding with the introduction of price ceilings. The fuel shortage stems from Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries, production cuts, and export bans, as well as weather-related supply chain issues near the Kerch Strait. This marks the first instance of such restrictions on fuel sales to private individuals in the region.
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Russia has implemented an export ban on fuel until the end of the year due to growing shortages at gas stations across the country and in occupied territories. These shortages are the result of increased Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries and fuel infrastructure. Russian officials initially attributed the supply issues to logistical problems, but the situation has worsened, with rationing and price increases reported in multiple regions, including Crimea. The ban includes gasoline and certain diesel fuel exports, a significant step for a major diesel producer and a key source of government revenue.
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Fuel shortages of AI-92 and AI-95 gasoline are emerging in several Russian regions, stemming from Ukrainian drone attacks on oil refineries. These attacks have disrupted supply chains, particularly affecting independent filling stations that lack the resources to stockpile fuel. Regional authorities claim disruptions are due to supply chain issues and anticipate a return to normal. To mitigate rising prices, the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange has tightened trading rules for diesel and gasoline, reflecting rising prices despite earlier restrictions.
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Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, which began in early August, have significantly impacted Russia’s fuel exports. From September 1st to 15th, fuel shipments dropped by 18% year-over-year, according to Kommersant, citing data from the Centre for Price Indices. The attacks, including damage to the port of Primorsk, led to temporary halts in shipments and unscheduled refinery repairs. Consequently, Russia’s refining output has declined, with analysts from JPMorgan noting a significant decrease in throughput.
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Russia is facing its worst fuel shortage in years, primarily due to Ukrainian drone strikes targeting oil refineries. These attacks have disabled approximately 17% of Russia’s oil refining capacity since August, leading to a significant daily loss of gasoline and diesel production. The crisis is expected to persist at least through the winter, exacerbated by scheduled maintenance and high interest rates hindering fuel supply for smaller gas stations. To address the issue, authorities have implemented short-term measures like export bans, as well as systemic plans like refining oil in Belarus, though long-term solutions may require ending the war or reforming price regulations.
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On August 4, the price of Ai-95 gasoline reached a record high on the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange, exceeding 77,000 rubles per ton. This price surge is attributed to recent Ukrainian drone attacks targeting Russian oil refineries, particularly the one in Ryazan Oblast. These attacks have damaged facilities, potentially impacting the processing of 40,000 tons of crude oil per day and requiring extensive repairs. This price increase occurs shortly after Russia implemented a gasoline export ban to stabilize the domestic market, with prior bans implemented to address fuel shortages and high prices.
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John Q. Hosedrinker