Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has proposed a postwar security guarantee for Ukraine that would require allies to decide within 24 hours whether to commit troops in the event of a renewed Russian attack. Similar to NATO’s Article 5, the proposal does not include Ukraine’s NATO membership but aims to offer protections via a system of rapid deliberation and response, which could include defense support, economic aid, and sanctions. Meloni’s plan is being considered by European leaders, with Zelensky preparing for direct negotiations with Putin. The Kremlin has dismissed these security proposals, insisting Russia be involved in any guarantee discussion.
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Following a video call with various world leaders, including U.S. President Donald Trump, French President Emmanuel Macron stated the U.S. is prepared to offer security guarantees to Ukraine post-war, though not through NATO membership, a key point for Russia. This stance from Trump was communicated just before his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska. A joint statement from Macron, U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, reaffirmed readiness to provide security guarantees to Ukraine and stated that Russia should not hold veto power over Ukraine’s potential EU and NATO membership. Territorial discussions will involve Zelensky, which Trump supports.
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A U.S. proposal to end the war in Ukraine, involving potentially recognizing Russia’s annexation of Crimea and barring Ukraine from NATO, has been presented to Ukrainian officials. These proposals, confirmed by Western officials, were discussed in Paris and await Ukrainian feedback at a London meeting. The plan also suggests a neutral zone around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, possibly under U.S. control, but stops short of demanding Russian troop withdrawals from occupied Ukrainian territories. While the U.S. maintains options for military aid, no concrete security guarantees are offered, contrasting with Russia’s demands for a halt to all military support to Ukraine.
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Kyiv and its partners concur that strengthening Ukraine and Europe is achievable within five years, though a three-year timeline is considered more desirable and feasible. This accelerated approach necessitates a significant collaborative effort, including increased production across allied nations to establish robust security guarantees. Crucially, this involves bolstering Ukraine’s military—a shared responsibility due to the substantial financial burden—and developing Ukrainian technologies to fortify the nation’s long-term security and economic prospects. This strengthening will serve as a security guarantor for both Ukraine and Europe.
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Romania’s interim president, Ilie Bolojan, participated in a London summit on European defense, hosted by Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Key agreements included continued military and financial support for Ukraine until a ceasefire, increased European defense budgets, and the acknowledgment that security guarantees for Ukraine require US support. These guarantees aim to secure the entire eastern flank, from the Baltic to the Black Sea, and necessitate a collaborative transatlantic plan. Further consultations are planned for the coming week to finalize decisions.
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Following a London summit, Ursula von der Leyen urged the EU to significantly increase defense spending and provide Ukraine with comprehensive security guarantees to deter future Russian aggression. This involves bolstering Ukraine’s military capabilities and ensuring its economic survival, alongside a substantial EU-wide rearmament effort. A new EU plan, to be presented on March 6th, will detail how to achieve this through increased public financing, EU funds, and European Investment Bank involvement. This push for stronger defense is a direct response to Russia’s invasion and recent diplomatic tensions.
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Thirty years after the signing of the Budapest Memorandum, President Zelenskyy declared its ineffectiveness, highlighting its failure to prevent war and provide Ukraine with security. He emphasized the need for tangible security guarantees, including strong alliances, reliable weaponry, and unwavering international unity. Ukraine’s rejection of security assurances outside of NATO membership underscores the lessons learned from the Memorandum’s shortcomings. This renewed focus on concrete security measures reflects Ukraine’s determination to avoid repeating past mistakes.
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John Q. Hosedrinker