In a recent statement, Trump suggested he could easily manipulate the housing market to make homes more affordable. He explained that lowering interest rates could allow more people to buy homes, but simultaneously risk devaluing existing mortgages and potentially causing homeowners to lose their properties. Trump’s remarks reveal a perspective focused on preserving the value of existing assets, seemingly prioritizing the interests of current property owners over those seeking affordable housing.
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The U.S., for the first time in 50 years, experienced negative net migration in 2025: Report, and that’s a pretty big deal, signaling a significant shift in the country’s demographic landscape. The report indicates that in 2025, more people left the U.S. or didn’t arrive compared to those who did, resulting in a negative net migration. The last time this happened was half a century ago, so it’s not something we’ve seen in a long time.
This trend is concerning because the report suggests that this decline could lead to weaker economic growth. With fewer people entering the country, the workforce shrinks, and that can have knock-on effects, impacting employment, gross domestic product (GDP), and consumer spending.… Continue reading
The Roman Empire faced a financial crisis similar to the U.S. today, leading to concerns about “fiscal dominance,” where the central bank’s ability to fight inflation is limited by the government’s debt. Economists worry that the U.S. may be approaching this point as the national debt climbs. This concept is further complicated by the “death of the Hamilton Norm,” where the public’s perception of government debt has shifted from being a future obligation to a permanent gift, fueling inflation. This situation is leading to market distress, as bond investors increasingly influence the economy.
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A new report from a U.S. congressional committee highlights the negative economic impacts of declining Canadian tourism to the United States. The report indicates that U.S. businesses in border states are experiencing significant losses due to decreased travel, citing factors such as Trump-era tariff policies and strained diplomatic relations. Examples are provided for several states, showcasing reduced border crossings and drops in revenue across various sectors, including hospitality and retail. Business owners report diminished sales, increased vacancies, and the need to reduce staffing due to the decline in Canadian visitors, with some fearing long-term damage to cross-border relationships.
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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed strong optimism for the U.S. economy in 2026, citing President Trump’s trade deals, tariff agenda, and the recently passed domestic policy package as key drivers. He acknowledged some economic pressures, particularly in the housing sector and the impact of the government shutdown. Bessent also discussed healthcare cost reductions anticipated under the Trump administration. In addition, Bessent advocated for ending the Senate filibuster and voiced support for a U.S.-backed peace deal between Russia and Ukraine.
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Foreclosure activity in the U.S. is experiencing a rise in 2025, with October marking the eighth consecutive month of annual increases. According to ATTOM, there were 36,766 foreclosure filings in October, a 19% jump year-over-year, though still remaining low compared to historical levels. Experts suggest this increase reflects a normalization of foreclosure volumes as market conditions adjust, but overall risk remains low due to factors like low-interest mortgages and the positive equity of most homeowners. While states like Florida are seeing the worst foreclosure rates, there is no indication of a crisis.
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October saw a significant surge in U.S. layoff announcements, with over 153,000 job cuts reported, a 175% increase year-over-year. This marks the highest October increase since 2003, driven by factors like AI adoption, softening spending, and rising costs. While major companies are citing AI as a reason for job cuts, the absence of official economic data due to the government shutdown complicates the assessment of the labor market’s health. Policymakers and investors are relying on alternative data, but the lack of government figures could hinder crucial economic decision-making and potentially impact future interest rate adjustments.
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A significant portion of the U.S. economy, representing about one-third of the nation’s GDP, is facing recessionary pressures, exacerbated by the ongoing government shutdown. According to Moody’s Analytics, 22 states are either in a recession or at serious risk, with states like Maine, Oregon, and Illinois already experiencing downturns. The shutdown, coupled with pre-existing economic challenges like rising food prices and tariff impacts, is intensifying economic distress, potentially leading to further job losses and reduced benefits for millions of Americans. Economists caution that a prolonged shutdown could have severe repercussions, potentially pushing the U.S. economy into a recession.
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According to J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s David Kelly, the U.S. government faces long-term financial challenges due to a growing national debt, currently exceeding $37.8 trillion. While the government is “going broke slowly,” the debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to increase, potentially impacting long-term interest rates and the dollar. Despite some optimism due to factors like tariff revenues, risks such as potential court challenges to tariffs and the possibility of a recession could accelerate debt accumulation. Therefore, investors should consider diversifying their portfolios to mitigate the risk of a faster deterioration in the federal finances.
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According to a recent Goldman Sachs report, U.S. consumers are currently bearing as much as 55% of the costs associated with President Trump’s tariffs on imports, and that number could rise further. This assessment comes as consumer prices have increased monthly since April, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reaching 2.93% in August. Despite the administration’s assertion that foreign exporters will ultimately bear the cost, analysts’ findings indicate that consumers are feeling the burden, even if it is less than during the 2018 trade war. The report also notes that the potential doubling of tariffs on China and other actions could significantly increase costs, potentially reaching 70% for consumers.
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John Q. Hosedrinker 
Matt Underwood