Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed strong optimism for the U.S. economy in 2026, citing President Trump’s trade deals, tariff agenda, and the recently passed domestic policy package as key drivers. He acknowledged some economic pressures, particularly in the housing sector and the impact of the government shutdown. Bessent also discussed healthcare cost reductions anticipated under the Trump administration. In addition, Bessent advocated for ending the Senate filibuster and voiced support for a U.S.-backed peace deal between Russia and Ukraine.
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Foreclosure activity in the U.S. is experiencing a rise in 2025, with October marking the eighth consecutive month of annual increases. According to ATTOM, there were 36,766 foreclosure filings in October, a 19% jump year-over-year, though still remaining low compared to historical levels. Experts suggest this increase reflects a normalization of foreclosure volumes as market conditions adjust, but overall risk remains low due to factors like low-interest mortgages and the positive equity of most homeowners. While states like Florida are seeing the worst foreclosure rates, there is no indication of a crisis.
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October saw a significant surge in U.S. layoff announcements, with over 153,000 job cuts reported, a 175% increase year-over-year. This marks the highest October increase since 2003, driven by factors like AI adoption, softening spending, and rising costs. While major companies are citing AI as a reason for job cuts, the absence of official economic data due to the government shutdown complicates the assessment of the labor market’s health. Policymakers and investors are relying on alternative data, but the lack of government figures could hinder crucial economic decision-making and potentially impact future interest rate adjustments.
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A significant portion of the U.S. economy, representing about one-third of the nation’s GDP, is facing recessionary pressures, exacerbated by the ongoing government shutdown. According to Moody’s Analytics, 22 states are either in a recession or at serious risk, with states like Maine, Oregon, and Illinois already experiencing downturns. The shutdown, coupled with pre-existing economic challenges like rising food prices and tariff impacts, is intensifying economic distress, potentially leading to further job losses and reduced benefits for millions of Americans. Economists caution that a prolonged shutdown could have severe repercussions, potentially pushing the U.S. economy into a recession.
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According to J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s David Kelly, the U.S. government faces long-term financial challenges due to a growing national debt, currently exceeding $37.8 trillion. While the government is “going broke slowly,” the debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to increase, potentially impacting long-term interest rates and the dollar. Despite some optimism due to factors like tariff revenues, risks such as potential court challenges to tariffs and the possibility of a recession could accelerate debt accumulation. Therefore, investors should consider diversifying their portfolios to mitigate the risk of a faster deterioration in the federal finances.
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According to a recent Goldman Sachs report, U.S. consumers are currently bearing as much as 55% of the costs associated with President Trump’s tariffs on imports, and that number could rise further. This assessment comes as consumer prices have increased monthly since April, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reaching 2.93% in August. Despite the administration’s assertion that foreign exporters will ultimately bear the cost, analysts’ findings indicate that consumers are feeling the burden, even if it is less than during the 2018 trade war. The report also notes that the potential doubling of tariffs on China and other actions could significantly increase costs, potentially reaching 70% for consumers.
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President Donald Trump is seeking unprecedented power over U.S. fiscal and monetary policy through several cases before the Supreme Court. One case concerns Trump’s tariffs, which he claims are valid without Congressional approval, potentially raising trillions in new taxes. Another case involves Trump’s ability to impound funds, essentially refusing to spend money appropriated by Congress. Finally, Trump is attempting to gain the power to fire a member of the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors. If Trump is successful in these cases, he could gain dictatorial control over the U.S. economy.
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Korea Requests Unlimited Currency Swap from U.S. Government, and the implications are significant. This request, a demand for a potentially massive currency swap agreement, immediately raises eyebrows, as these kinds of arrangements are typically reserved for times of extreme financial distress, much like the 2008 global financial crisis or the more recent challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic. The fact that South Korea is seeking this now suggests they’re facing some significant hurdles in their plans to invest heavily in the United States.
At its core, the issue revolves around South Korea’s commitment to invest a substantial sum, reportedly around $350 billion, in the U.S.… Continue reading
U.S. layoffs surged in July, reaching their highest level since the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, with 62,075 job cuts announced. This represents a significant 29 percent jump from June and a 140 percent increase compared to July 2024. The rise is attributed to government downsizing, corporate restructuring, and the growing influence of artificial intelligence. Sectors such as public agencies, tech firms, and retailers are leading the cuts, with automation and AI linked to over 20,000 layoffs in 2025.
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President Trump announced on Monday that reciprocal tariffs on imports from at least seven countries will be reimposed starting August 1, after initially pausing them in April. Letters were sent to various leaders, including Japan and South Korea, outlining the new tariff rates, which include a 24% tariff for Japan and a 25% for South Korea. These tariffs are aimed at correcting trade deficits and come with warnings against retaliatory duties. The letters also state that these tariffs may be modified. U.S. financial markets reacted negatively to the news.
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John Q. Hosedrinker 
Matt Underwood