On November 27, Russia deployed Tu-22M3 long-range bombers armed with Kh-32 supersonic cruise missiles over the Baltic Sea, accompanied by fighter jets. The five-hour flight in international airspace was monitored by foreign military aircraft, including Swedish Air Force QRA fighters who intercepted and identified the Russian bombers. The bombers originated from Olenya air base, recently reactivated for long-range aviation, and the mission rehearsed a maritime strike profile targeting NATO assets. This exercise, along with a separate Arctic Ocean patrol by a Tu-160 bomber, is considered part of routine long-range aviation training, but is seen by NATO as strategic signaling.
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A Ukrainian drone strike, codenamed “Spiderweb,” targeted four Russian air bases on June 1, reportedly damaging or destroying a significant number of Russian nuclear-capable bombers, including Tu-95 and Tu-22 aircraft. While the SBU claimed damage exceeding $7 billion and the destruction of one-third of Russia’s cruise missile bombers, Kremlin sources suggested a lower figure of around 10 aircraft affected. Satellite imagery supports some of the damage claims, showing destroyed bombers at the Belaya air base. Despite the attack, the impact on Russia’s bombing campaign against Ukraine is expected to be minimal.
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Analysis of satellite imagery confirms the destruction of at least 13 Russian military aircraft at Belaya and Olenya air bases following a June 1st Ukrainian drone strike. The attack, codenamed “Spider Web,” involved 117 FPV drones targeting five airfields across three time zones, resulting in the loss of eight Tu-95 and four Tu-22M3 bombers, among other aircraft. This represents a significant blow to Russia’s strategic aviation capabilities, given that these bomber models are no longer in production. The estimated cost of the destroyed aircraft is approximately $7 billion.
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A recent UAV strike on the Kazan Aircraft Production Association (KAPO) highlights vulnerabilities in Russia’s bomber production. Russia relies on decades-old Soviet reserves to “reproduce,” rather than build from scratch, new Tu-160 and Tu-22M3 bombers, resulting in significant delays and a limited number of operational aircraft. The slow production, coupled with delays in the delivery of modernized Tu-160M and Tu-22M3M bombers, suggests potential issues with engines and onboard systems. This incident underscores concerns about the overall health and capability of Russia’s defense industry.
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John Q. Hosedrinker