NASA has raised the probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting Earth in 2032 to 3.1%, a significant increase from earlier estimates. This 177-foot-diameter asteroid, large enough to destroy a major city, currently holds a Torino Scale rating of 3. While a direct hit remains unlikely (96.9% chance of missing Earth), the potential for localized devastation necessitates further observation. Fortunately, the James Webb Space Telescope will soon study YR4 to refine its trajectory and reduce uncertainty.
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Newly discovered asteroid 2024 YR4 poses a 2.6% chance of impacting Earth in 2032, a slight increase from previous estimations. This sizable asteroid, estimated at 130-300 feet in diameter, has been assigned a Torino Scale level 3 rating due to its size and impact probability. A level 3 indicates a significant risk of localized destruction should an impact occur. Further observation by the James Webb Space Telescope aims to refine impact probability assessments.
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Newly discovered asteroid 2024 YR poses a calculated 2.3% chance of impacting Earth in 2032, prompting a rise in its impact risk ranking. While initially assessed as a low-probability threat by the ESA, NASA’s Cneos now places it at a three on the Torino scale. However, scientists emphasize that these probabilities are subject to change with further observation and data collection on its trajectory and velocity. The likelihood of impact is expected to decrease significantly as more data becomes available.
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John Q. Hosedrinker