A Syrian rebel offensive, spearheaded by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), is rapidly advancing towards Aleppo, exceeding Russia’s capacity to counter. Russia’s limited response stems from the significant redeployment of its air assets to support the Ukraine campaign, leaving insufficient forces in Syria. Experts suggest Turkish involvement in planning and supplying the rebels, potentially exploiting weaknesses in the Syrian army and its Russian support. The offensive’s success may significantly damage Russia’s reputation and ultimately prompt a delayed, potentially Wagner-affiliated, response.
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Armed clashes have erupted in Damascus, prompting a mass exodus of Russian troops and diplomats from the Syrian capital. Russian forces are abandoning positions elsewhere in Syria, including Hama and Khan Shaykhun, leaving behind significant military equipment. This retreat follows reports of rebel advances and a deteriorating situation for the Assad regime, which Russia continues to support. The situation has led to the dismissal of at least one Russian commander and the summoning of another for questioning. Russian airstrikes have been reported in an attempt to mitigate losses.
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A Turkish-backed coalition of Islamist militant groups, including Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, launched a significant offensive in Syria’s Aleppo governate on November 27th. Reports suggest Ukrainian special forces may have provided training to these rebels, focusing on tactics used in the Ukraine war, although this remains unverified. The offensive, fueled by Russia’s troop deployment to Ukraine, has resulted in rebel gains, including the capture of numerous villages and military equipment. The swift rebel advance, coupled with attacks by the SDF, has reportedly surprised Syrian and Russian forces, leading to a tactical withdrawal and civilian casualties.
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Following significant Russian troop losses in Syria, attributed to a successful offensive by Turkish-backed rebels, General Sergey Kiselyov was dismissed as commander of Russian forces and replaced by General Alexander Chayko. These losses, including hundreds of missing soldiers, reportedly prompted the Kremlin’s action. Admiral Alexander Moiseev’s presence at the Tartus naval base further highlights the situation’s gravity. Ukrainian intelligence suggests that Ukrainian special forces provided training to the rebels involved in these offensives.
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Despite initial appearances of victory, the Assad regime in Syria faces a renewed and significant threat. A recent, swift offensive by the opposition, fueled by the weakened state of Assad’s allies (Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah), has led to the collapse of government forces in northern Syria and advances toward Hama. This offensive exploits the stretched resources of Assad’s key supporters, who are preoccupied with conflicts elsewhere. The Assad dynasty’s long reign, marked by corruption and mismanagement, highlights the eventual fragility of even the most entrenched regimes.
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Rebel groups, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, launched a large-scale offensive in Aleppo, Syria, targeting Russian and Syrian forces in at least ten areas. This attack, dubbed “Deterring Aggression,” follows increased Syrian and Russian airstrikes on Idlib and aims to counter a Syrian army buildup. Rebel advances have reached approximately 10 kilometers from Aleppo, including near Al-Nayrab airport and Shiite towns with Hezbollah presence. This marks the rebels’ first territorial gain since a 2020 ceasefire, and reports—unconfirmed by Newsweek—suggest Russian special forces casualties.
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John Q. Hosedrinker