Russia’s decision to essentially push Assad out of Syria after concluding his regime was on the verge of collapse highlights a significant intelligence failure within the Kremlin. Vladimir Putin’s subsequent demand for answers from Russia’s intelligence service underscores the gravity of this miscalculation. The fact that Assad’s impending downfall wasn’t foreseen until it was nearly too late points to systemic issues within the Russian intelligence apparatus.
This failure to accurately assess the situation in Syria mirrors other intelligence failures attributed to Russia, such as the grossly inaccurate assessment of the Ukrainian resistance prior to the invasion. The belief that a swift victory in Ukraine could be achieved without significant pushback demonstrates a pattern of wishful thinking rather than grounded analysis.… Continue reading
Following the overthrow of Syrian President Bashar Assad, Israel launched extensive airstrikes across Syria and advanced into a pre-existing buffer zone, claiming the goal is to prevent extremist groups from acquiring military assets. Israeli Defense Minister Katz announced the intention to create a demilitarized zone in southern Syria, devoid of weapons and terrorist threats, without permanent Israeli presence. While Israel denied advancing on Damascus, the incursion drew condemnation from several regional powers and the UN for violating the 1974 disengagement agreement. Despite the Israeli actions, life in Damascus is gradually returning to normal.
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The IDF’s deployment of significant infantry and tank forces into the Golan Heights demilitarized zone (DMZ) following the toppling of the Assad regime presents a complex situation. The move isn’t simply about territorial expansion; it’s framed as a security precaution, a bolstering of Israel’s defenses in a region now facing considerable instability.
The justification centers on the need to prevent access to the DMZ by potentially hostile elements. With the Assad regime weakened or gone, the fear is that various rebel groups, possibly armed with chemical or other dangerous weapons, could attempt to exploit the situation. This proactive measure is presented as necessary to secure the area and protect Israeli interests.… Continue reading
Unconfirmed reports indicate Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s plane was shot down following a rebel offensive that captured major cities, including Aleppo and Homs, and led to the reported fall of Damascus. The president’s disappearance from radar and subsequent altitude drop fuel these claims. Russia, a key Assad ally, is calling for dialogue between the warring factions, excluding the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which is leading the rebel charge. Rebels have declared Damascus liberated, while the situation remains highly volatile and unconfirmed.
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Following a surprisingly swift rebel advance, the Biden administration assesses a high likelihood of Bashar al-Assad’s regime falling within days. This assessment, while not yet formal, stems from the regime’s forces largely abandoning the fight, leaving a weak defense of Damascus. Concerns exist regarding the safety of Assad’s chemical weapons stockpile and the potential impact on US troops in the region, particularly given the involvement of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a group designated as a terrorist organization. The US is currently monitoring the situation and taking additional force protection measures. The speed of the rebel advance has caught the administration off guard, prompting concerns similar to those following the fall of Kabul and the initial invasion of Ukraine.
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Rebel forces have launched a significant offensive in Syria, seizing control of several major cities and reaching the suburbs of Damascus. This rapid advance has prompted the UN to strategically relocate non-critical staff, while the Syrian government maintains a security cordon around Damascus and denies rumors of Assad’s departure. International actors, including Russia, Iran, and Turkey, are reportedly seeking to de-escalate the situation and initiate political talks. The conflict’s rapid escalation has caused widespread displacement and significant civilian casualties.
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Russia’s Foreign Minister Lavrov has stated that Moscow, Tehran, and Ankara desire an immediate cessation of hostilities in Syria. This announcement, however, arrives amidst a complex and rapidly evolving situation on the ground, raising questions about the sincerity and feasibility of such a call.
The timing of this declaration is particularly interesting, coinciding with reported significant gains by rebel forces against the Assad regime. This suggests that the desire for an immediate end to fighting may stem from a recognition of dwindling influence and potential for further military setbacks. It’s possible the narrative of wanting peace is a face-saving tactic in the face of defeat, a way to mitigate the perception of failure rather than a genuine commitment to a negotiated settlement.… Continue reading
Rebel forces have seized control of Daraa city, marking a significant loss for President Bashar al-Assad’s regime following recent rebel gains in Aleppo and Hama. This follows a recent offensive launched on November 27th, resulting in the government losing control of key cities at an unprecedented rate. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reports that local armed groups, unlike Islamist-led alliances in other areas, now control over 90 percent of Daraa province. This stunning shift comes despite a Russia-brokered truce and amidst escalating violence that has displaced thousands.
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Amid a significant rebel offensive resulting in the capture of key Syrian cities like Hama and Aleppo, Iran has reportedly begun withdrawing its troops from Syria. This retreat, confirmed by Iranian officials and analysts, includes the evacuation of both military personnel and diplomatic staff. The decision stems from the assessment that without Syrian government cooperation, Iranian support efforts are ineffective. This withdrawal significantly weakens Assad’s regime, potentially increasing reliance on Russia despite doubts about Moscow’s capacity to intervene effectively.
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Anti-regime forces in Syria captured a sophisticated Russian Podlet-K1 radar system, a significant intelligence coup potentially impacting the region. The system, part of a three-vehicle unit, is a modern air defense radar used in Ukraine and capable of detecting low-altitude targets. Its capture by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) rebels, likely near Hama, raises concerns about Western access to sensitive Russian military technology. This follows a pattern of substantial equipment losses by Syrian and potentially Russian forces during the ongoing rebel offensive.
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Matt Underwood 
John Q. Hosedrinker