The Federal Reserve recently held its ground, keeping interest rates unchanged while also forecasting higher inflation. This decision has stirred quite a bit of commentary, particularly around the phrasing of headlines that suggest the Fed is acting “despite” inflation. Many observers point out that this framing misses the crucial connection: it’s precisely *because* of higher inflation that the Fed *must* keep rates steady, or even consider raising them. Lowering rates, in this context, would only fuel the inflationary fire further.
It’s almost as if the public is peering into the Fed’s operations expecting precise control, like pilots in a cockpit. However, the reality feels more like individuals adjusting a thermostat that isn’t actually connected to the heating system.… Continue reading
February’s inflation data significantly exceeded Wall Street expectations, with Producer Price Index (PPI) figures coming in 0.7 percent month-over-month and 0.5 percent higher year-over-year than estimated. This unexpected surge in inflation, coupled with recent weak job creation and economic growth, points towards a concerning economic scenario. The combination of rising prices, high unemployment, and stagnant growth strongly suggests that stagflation is either imminent or has already begun.
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Economic growth significantly decelerated in the final quarter of 2025, with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rising at a mere 0.7% annual rate, a downward revision from previous estimates and a sharp decline from the prior period. This slowdown was exacerbated by a substantial decrease in government spending due to a prolonged shutdown. Concurrently, the start of 2026 saw core inflation accelerate, with the personal consumption expenditures price index for January indicating price increases at a 2.8% annual rate, remaining a concern for the Federal Reserve. Revisions to consumer and government spending, alongside adjustments in exports, contributed to the weaker GDP performance for the quarter and the full year.
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Global stock markets are experiencing significant declines amid escalating oil prices, which briefly neared $120 per barrel due to the ongoing conflict with Iran. This surge in oil costs, reminiscent of market reactions to the Ukraine invasion, raises concerns about stagflation, where economic growth stagnates while inflation remains high. While oil prices have seen some pullback, the continued disruption in critical shipping lanes like the Strait of Hormuz threatens further price increases, potentially impacting industries with high fuel expenditures and consumer budgets already strained by inflation.
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Russian leader Vladimir Putin acknowledged a significant economic slowdown in 2025, with growth reaching only 1%, falling short of projections. This marks a departure from the war-driven expansion seen in preceding years. While Putin attributed the slowdown to deliberate anti-inflationary measures, the reduction in growth coincides with the prolonged war in Ukraine, which has strained the economy and led to decreased revenues. The Russian economy now faces stagflation, a challenging environment where inflationary and recessionary pressures coexist.
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US consumer inflation accelerates; weekly jobless claims approach four-year high, and it’s definitely a situation that’s got people talking, and not in a good way. It seems like things are heading in a direction that many predicted, and the consequences are starting to hit home. The rise in inflation, as reported by the Labor Department, is the biggest jump we’ve seen in a while, and that’s directly translating into higher prices for everyday essentials.
The other side of this coin is the news about weekly jobless claims. They’re nearing a four-year high, which means more people are finding themselves out of work.… Continue reading
New government data indicates that U.S. job growth has nearly stalled, raising concerns about the economy’s direction. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported only 22,000 jobs added in August, significantly below expectations, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. This slowdown is occurring despite the stock market’s positive performance, largely due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The economic uncertainty stems from policies such as tariffs on imports, which have also contributed to ongoing inflation.
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The U.S. dollar has just experienced its most significant decline for the first half of any year since 1973, and that’s a pretty startling statistic to digest. It immediately begs the question: what’s causing this, and what does it mean for the average person? The last time we saw a drop of this magnitude was back in the early seventies – a period marked by significant economic shifts. Now, we’re seeing echoes of that, and it’s natural to feel a bit disoriented by it all.
Essentially, a weaker dollar means that the value of the currency is decreasing compared to other currencies around the world.… Continue reading
In May, a key inflation gauge indicated that prices remained stubbornly high, with prices up 2.3% compared to the previous year. Core prices, excluding food and energy, rose 2.7% annually, exceeding the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Simultaneously, consumer spending decreased by 0.1% for the first time since January. While tariffs have influenced prices of certain goods, falling prices in other areas have offset these increases.
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In a stark economic forecast, the Federal Reserve projects aggressive stagflation for the remainder of 2025, anticipating 3 percent inflation, a 1.4 percent GDP decline, and 4.5 percent unemployment. This projection follows the Trump administration’s consideration of increased aid to Israel and the passage of the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” which significantly increases the national deficit. Fed Chair Powell reiterated that the current economic downturn stems directly from President Trump’s tariffs. The Fed maintains its current interest rate policy despite the projected stagflation.
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Matt Underwood 
John Q. Hosedrinker