US consumer inflation accelerates; weekly jobless claims approach four-year high, and it’s definitely a situation that’s got people talking, and not in a good way. It seems like things are heading in a direction that many predicted, and the consequences are starting to hit home. The rise in inflation, as reported by the Labor Department, is the biggest jump we’ve seen in a while, and that’s directly translating into higher prices for everyday essentials.
The other side of this coin is the news about weekly jobless claims. They’re nearing a four-year high, which means more people are finding themselves out of work.… Continue reading
New government data indicates that U.S. job growth has nearly stalled, raising concerns about the economy’s direction. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported only 22,000 jobs added in August, significantly below expectations, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. This slowdown is occurring despite the stock market’s positive performance, largely due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The economic uncertainty stems from policies such as tariffs on imports, which have also contributed to ongoing inflation.
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The U.S. dollar has just experienced its most significant decline for the first half of any year since 1973, and that’s a pretty startling statistic to digest. It immediately begs the question: what’s causing this, and what does it mean for the average person? The last time we saw a drop of this magnitude was back in the early seventies – a period marked by significant economic shifts. Now, we’re seeing echoes of that, and it’s natural to feel a bit disoriented by it all.
Essentially, a weaker dollar means that the value of the currency is decreasing compared to other currencies around the world.… Continue reading
In May, a key inflation gauge indicated that prices remained stubbornly high, with prices up 2.3% compared to the previous year. Core prices, excluding food and energy, rose 2.7% annually, exceeding the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Simultaneously, consumer spending decreased by 0.1% for the first time since January. While tariffs have influenced prices of certain goods, falling prices in other areas have offset these increases.
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In a stark economic forecast, the Federal Reserve projects aggressive stagflation for the remainder of 2025, anticipating 3 percent inflation, a 1.4 percent GDP decline, and 4.5 percent unemployment. This projection follows the Trump administration’s consideration of increased aid to Israel and the passage of the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” which significantly increases the national deficit. Fed Chair Powell reiterated that the current economic downturn stems directly from President Trump’s tariffs. The Fed maintains its current interest rate policy despite the projected stagflation.
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A new report by the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CAMAC) warns that Russia’s economy is teetering on the brink of stagflation, with a potential recession looming in the second and third quarters of 2025. The report cites slowing GDP growth (1.4 percent in Q1 2025), high inflation (9.8 percent), and weakening consumer demand as key contributing factors. This precarious situation is exacerbated by falling investments and construction projects. To mitigate the crisis, the report recommends tackling inflation and stimulating investment, while the Central Bank of Russia maintains a tight monetary policy despite cutting its key interest rate.
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Despite Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s warning of potential stagflation due to tariffs, Trump claims the opposite is occurring, citing decreased energy costs and inflation. Trump’s assertions directly contradict Powell’s concerns about rising inflation, slower growth, and increased unemployment resulting from the tariff policy. This stark disagreement highlights a significant tension between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve regarding the economic impact of tariffs. Trump’s repeated attacks on Powell underscore the deep divisions over economic policy.
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The Federal Reserve’s stagflation warning dominated the discussion, alongside concerns about Donald Trump’s aggressive trade rhetoric toward China. Experts highlighted the significant risk these factors pose to the U.S. economy. Nicolle Wallace framed the situation as the economy being held captive by a single individual’s unpredictable actions and beliefs. Contributors included economist Justin Wolfers, former Congressman David Jolly, and Flexport CEO Ryan Petersen.
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President Trump imposed sweeping new tariffs on numerous countries, significantly increasing existing rates and targeting China with a 104% levy. These “reciprocal” tariffs, calculated based on trade deficits, range from 11% to 50% and affect major trading partners including the EU and Japan. The resulting economic consequences are projected to include increased consumer prices, potential global recession, and stagflation, with some economists predicting a US recession by the second quarter. Despite warnings and international pressure, Trump maintains his course, rejecting offers of tariff reductions and prioritizing non-tariff trade barriers as key concerns.
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US consumer sentiment deteriorated sharply in March, a trend fueled by a confluence of factors that are eroding confidence in the economy and prompting consumers to significantly curtail spending. The uncertainty surrounding government policies, particularly concerning potential job losses due to funding cuts in crucial sectors like research, is a major contributor to this downturn. People are hesitant to make large purchases, opting instead to hoard cash and prioritize essential expenses. This is fundamentally shifting the behavior of a segment of the population that typically contributes significantly to economic activity.
This shift in consumer behavior is directly impacting the economy. When consumers, the engine of the US economy, lose confidence and pull back from non-essential spending, the overall economic health suffers.… Continue reading
Matt Underwood 
John Q. Hosedrinker