Russia’s Economy

Russia’s Hidden War Debt Fuels Looming Economic Crisis

Russia’s war financing involves a dual strategy: a publicized defense budget and a covert system of state-directed, off-budget loans to defense contractors totaling hundreds of billions of dollars. This off-budget lending, initiated after the Ukraine invasion, has resulted in soaring corporate debt and crippling interest payments, with interest rates reaching 21%. The resulting financial strain is causing concern about potential bankruptcies and a broader economic crisis, potentially overshadowing the officially reported defense spending. Analysts warn that this hidden debt burden, exceeding official military spending, poses a significant threat to Russia’s financial stability.

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Russia’s Foreign Currency Reserves Plummet to 2008 Levels Amid Mounting Deficits

Russia’s National Welfare Fund (NWF), initially holding $140 billion in liquid assets, has been significantly depleted to $53.8 billion due to the ongoing war and budget deficits. To cover these shortfalls, projected to reach $61 billion over the next three years, Russia has resorted to selling gold reserves and faces further financial strain from recent US sanctions impacting trade with China. These sanctions have complicated transactions, forcing reliance on intermediaries for payments. The dwindling NWF reserves highlight the increasing economic pressure on Russia.

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