In September, Russia’s territorial gains in Ukraine dramatically decreased, with forces capturing 44% less land compared to August, totaling approximately 259 square kilometers. This gain, which represents only 0.04% of Ukraine’s total area, is the smallest monthly advance since May. Key losses for Ukraine were concentrated near Novopavlivka in Donetsk Oblast, a challenging front line, and heavy fighting persisted around Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast. However, Ukrainian forces have been pushing back Russian troops in the Pokrovsk direction, reclaiming villages and slowing the enemy’s advance.
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In August, Ukrainian forces in the Pokrovsk sector of Donetsk Oblast lost five square kilometers but regained control of 26, according to Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi. Russian forces have focused their offensive efforts on the Pokrovsk axis, attempting to break through Ukrainian defenses. These counterattacks are led by units of Ukraine’s Assault Forces, which have been reported to have cleared several villages around Pokrovsk of Russian forces. The ongoing conflict in the region and Russia’s advances strengthen Moscow’s position in potential peace negotiations, which could involve Ukraine ceding all of Donetsk Oblast.
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In August 2025, the rate of Russian territorial gains in Ukraine decreased by 18%, with 464 square kilometers seized, bringing the total occupied area to 19% of Ukraine. This mirrors the percentage held on October 3, 2022. DeepState attributed the decline in activity to the rotation of Russian units, with assault intensity lower than in the preceding three months due to redeployments and troop rotations. However, analysts predict an increase in Russian activity during September.
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John Q. Hosedrinker