Recent data suggests that while Russia’s territorial gains in Ukraine have been minimal, its personnel losses are substantial. The Economist estimates that Russia’s battlefield losses since February 2022 range between 1 million and 1.35 million personnel. Despite a slight increase in territorial gains during 2025, the overall progress remains slow, with Russia only capturing an additional 1.45% of Ukrainian land over the past three years. This slow advance comes despite fighting in urban areas, which is not producing large territorial gains.
Read More
In September, Russia’s territorial gains in Ukraine dramatically decreased, with forces capturing 44% less land compared to August, totaling approximately 259 square kilometers. This gain, which represents only 0.04% of Ukraine’s total area, is the smallest monthly advance since May. Key losses for Ukraine were concentrated near Novopavlivka in Donetsk Oblast, a challenging front line, and heavy fighting persisted around Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast. However, Ukrainian forces have been pushing back Russian troops in the Pokrovsk direction, reclaiming villages and slowing the enemy’s advance.
Read More
In August, Ukrainian forces in the Pokrovsk sector of Donetsk Oblast lost five square kilometers but regained control of 26, according to Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi. Russian forces have focused their offensive efforts on the Pokrovsk axis, attempting to break through Ukrainian defenses. These counterattacks are led by units of Ukraine’s Assault Forces, which have been reported to have cleared several villages around Pokrovsk of Russian forces. The ongoing conflict in the region and Russia’s advances strengthen Moscow’s position in potential peace negotiations, which could involve Ukraine ceding all of Donetsk Oblast.
Read More
In August 2025, the rate of Russian territorial gains in Ukraine decreased by 18%, with 464 square kilometers seized, bringing the total occupied area to 19% of Ukraine. This mirrors the percentage held on October 3, 2022. DeepState attributed the decline in activity to the rotation of Russian units, with assault intensity lower than in the preceding three months due to redeployments and troop rotations. However, analysts predict an increase in Russian activity during September.
Read More
John Q. Hosedrinker