“Kinetic sanctions”: 160 strikes on Russian refineries cut oil output by 90% – SBU chief, that headline, it’s a real grabber, isn’t it? It certainly gets your attention, and it’s easy to see why it would be shared widely. However, when we dig into the details and the supporting information, things get a little murkier, and we need to approach the claims with a healthy dose of skepticism.
The core of the issue lies in that initial 90% figure. It’s a significant claim, suggesting a massive impact on Russia’s oil production capabilities. But when you start to look for hard evidence to back it up, you run into some problems.… Continue reading
Over 20 countries pledge to remove Russian oil and gas from global markets is a significant move, signaling a growing international effort to squeeze Russia’s financial lifeline. This commitment represents a concerted push to reduce dependence on Russian energy resources, a bold step with far-reaching implications. The goal is to weaken Russia’s ability to fund its operations, particularly its military actions, and to diversify global energy supplies.
The scope of this pledge is considerable, encompassing a diverse group of nations, each with its own energy needs and economic ties. The implications are that these nations are willing to endure some short-term economic adjustments to achieve a larger strategic goal.… Continue reading
In a summit held in London, over 20 nations supporting Ukraine have committed to removing Russian oil and gas from the global market to pressure President Putin. Key actions include sanctions against major Russian oil companies and targeting Moscow’s LNG exports, with the UK aiming to unlock billions through Russian sovereign assets for Ukraine’s defense. While the allies also pledged to bolster Ukraine’s air defenses, no announcements were made regarding the delivery of long-range missiles, which Ukraine has requested to target Russian military assets. Despite these efforts, no specific strategies were detailed to force a battlefield change or compel Putin to negotiate.
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The Defence Intelligence of Ukraine has updated its War&Sanctions portal, releasing dossiers on 139 vessels and 142 captains engaged in illicit activities. These activities include the illegal transport of sanctioned Russian and Iranian oil, and the smuggling of stolen Ukrainian grain. The intelligence agency highlights that these actions provide crucial revenue to Russia, which funds the ongoing war. The update reveals new tankers, vessels linked to Iranian oil magnates, and ships involved in transporting stolen Ukrainian grain, further exposing the scale of sanctions evasion.
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Despite the White House’s pressure, Hungary will not stop importing Russian oil and gas, according to Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó. Szijjártó stated that without Russian supplies, Hungary’s energy security cannot be guaranteed due to existing infrastructure constraints. This stance aligns with former President Donald Trump’s demands that NATO allies cease buying Russian oil as a condition for further sanctions. Hungary, along with Slovakia, has resisted calls from European leaders to halt energy imports, with its prime minister, Viktor Orbán, being a close ally of Trump.
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The European Union is reportedly preparing trade measures to potentially halt Russian oil imports through the Druzhba pipeline, the primary crude supply route for Hungary and Slovakia. These measures, unlike sanctions, would bypass the need for unanimous approval, thus circumventing potential resistance from these countries. This move aligns with the EU’s efforts to reduce dependence on Russian energy, a goal also encouraged by the US. Hungary and Slovakia are currently the only EU nations still importing Russian pipeline oil, while Czechia recently ended its imports.
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The European Commission, under pressure from the U.S. President, will propose an accelerated phase-out of Russian energy purchases, going beyond its initial plan to cease purchases by 2027. This announcement followed a phone call focused on increasing economic pressure on Russia. The Commission is also preparing to present a new sanctions package targeting Russia’s crypto, banks, and energy sectors. Meanwhile, the U.S. has been pushing for tougher sanctions, including tariffs on China and India, the leading buyers of Russian oil, in an attempt to push Russia to the negotiating table.
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On September 13th, former U.S. President Donald Trump stated he would impose “major” sanctions on Russia if all NATO members ceased buying Russian oil. He also proposed that NATO members place tariffs ranging from 50-100% on China to further pressure Russia, emphasizing the importance of China’s influence. While Trump has previously threatened sanctions, he has been slow to enact them, although he did implement a tariff on India. Despite condemnation from Brussels, some European nations continue to rely on Russian oil imports, highlighting the complexities of reducing dependence on Russian energy sources.
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On September 7th, Ukrainian forces conducted strikes on the Ilsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai and the “8-N” oil pipeline control station in Bryansk Oblast, both crucial for supplying fuel to Russian troops. These attacks, carried out by various branches of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, targeted facilities within Russia’s energy infrastructure as part of an effort to undermine Moscow’s war financing. The “8-N” control station, part of a strategically important pipeline, and the Ilsky refinery, a major fuel producer, were both significantly impacted, with fires reported at each location. These strikes are part of a larger pattern of intensified Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, with over a dozen refineries being targeted in recent months.
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According to the Ukrainian ambassador to India, Ukraine understands India’s need to defend its national interests regarding Russian oil purchases and is not pressuring New Delhi. He stated any issues arising from this can be discussed bilaterally, highlighting the regular communication between leaders. Despite tensions, discussions on the matter are seen as akin to family matters, solvable through negotiation. Additionally, the ambassador confirmed ongoing efforts to schedule a visit by President Zelenskyy to India and noted the lack of clarity on potential peace negotiations between Zelenskyy and Putin.
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Matt Underwood 
John Q. Hosedrinker