Recent speculation regarding a potential reshuffle in Russian foreign policy has been refuted by Kremlin officials. Despite Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s unexpected absence from a Russian Security Council meeting and his replacement as the head of the G20 delegation, officials have confirmed that Lavrov remains in his position. This news followed the cancellation of a planned summit between Putin and Trump, where Lavrov was the primary point person. The Kremlin appears committed to preserving loyalty and continuity, with any setbacks often resulting in internal adjustments rather than outright dismissals.
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Kamel Saqr, a former top aide to Bashar al-Assad, alleges that Vladimir Putin may have deliberately misled Assad before the fall of Damascus. Saqr claims Assad sought Russian support for Iranian military aid transport, a request seemingly approved by Putin but ultimately unfulfilled by the Russians. This lack of support, coupled with warnings from the US to Iran, contributed to Assad’s hasty escape from Damascus to Moscow. Saqr suggests this inaction constituted a betrayal, leaving Assad vulnerable to the advancing rebel forces.
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Following the Syrian rebels’ ouster of Bashar al-Assad after 13 years of civil war, Russia faces damage to its reputation as a reliable ally. The UK Ministry of Defence assesses that Russia, preoccupied with the Ukraine conflict, is now working to secure its military bases in Syria and regain its regional influence. Moscow’s efforts include diplomatic negotiations with various actors to ensure the continued operation of its naval and air bases. This situation highlights the detrimental impact of the Ukraine conflict on Russia’s ability to maintain its strategic interests in the Middle East.
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The sanctions imposed on Russia are having a significant impact on my ability to travel. Due to the refusal of “friendly” countries to refuel my plane, I have encountered difficulties on recent trips to South Africa and Brazil. This situation arises from the widespread ownership of aviation fuel companies by non-governmental entities, leaving “friendly” countries apprehensive about potential secondary sanctions. As a result, I have been forced to rely on alternative transportation methods, such as utilizing the planes of my counterparts, highlighting the ongoing challenges of international travel for Russian officials in this new geopolitical landscape.
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John Q. Hosedrinker