Russia’s oil and gas revenue is anticipated to decrease by approximately 35% in November compared to the previous year, reaching roughly $6.6 billion, due to weaker crude prices and a stronger ruble. This decline, also reflected in a 7.4% decrease from October, places pressure on Russia’s budget, especially with elevated defense spending. For the first 11 months of 2025, oil and gas revenue is projected to total approximately $102 billion. Western sanctions, designed to limit Moscow’s war funding, have compounded the issue.
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A report from Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service indicates that numerous Russian regions are experiencing significant shortfalls in meeting their budget revenue targets, with many running deficit budgets. Kemerovo Oblast’s deficit has already surpassed projections, while Bashkortostan’s deficit has doubled the planned level. The Republic of Sakha, Yakutia, has also seen massive overspending, and Rostov Oblast is facing a substantial deficit despite initially planning for a surplus. These financial woes are attributed to Western sanctions impacting key industries like coal and a surge in one-off payments to volunteer soldiers.
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The Russian economy is significantly weaker than official reports from Moscow suggest, a finding that aligns with independent assessments and casts a long shadow over the country’s ongoing war in Ukraine. The discrepancies between the Kremlin’s pronouncements and the reality on the ground are substantial and point towards a much more precarious economic situation.
The reported inflation figures, for instance, are dramatically lower than the central bank’s interest rate, a significant red flag suggesting manipulation of data. This manipulation casts serious doubt on the validity of the reported GDP growth, which may well be concealing a deeper recession. The situation is far from rosy; a significant economic downturn is very likely underway.… Continue reading
John Q. Hosedrinker 
Matt Underwood