Following a December 25th crash in Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan’s transport minister stated that the Azerbaijan Airlines plane suffered “external interference,” resulting in both internal and external damage. Survivors reported hearing three blasts while the aircraft was over Grozny, Chechnya, leading to speculation that Russian air defenses were involved. While the Kremlin remains silent, Russia cited a “closed-skies protocol” due to Ukrainian drone attacks, and US officials have expressed early indications supporting the theory of Russian air defense involvement. Azerbaijani officials, while avoiding direct accusations, suggest the plane was struck by shrapnel from a missile, impacting its GPS and hydraulic systems.
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The downing of an Azerbaijan Airlines plane in Kazakhstan, resulting in the tragic loss of 38 lives, points to a deeply disturbing incident. Preliminary findings from Azerbaijan’s investigation strongly suggest that Russian air defenses were responsible. This conclusion, supported by multiple sources, alleges that a missile, likely from a Pantsir system, exploded near the aircraft, causing catastrophic damage and leading to its crash. The severity of the damage, evidenced by holes in the rear fuselage and the fact that the plane didn’t crash immediately, supports the theory of a near miss causing significant structural failure.
This incident raises profound questions about the competence and accountability of Russian air defenses.… Continue reading
Ukrainian intelligence launched a multifaceted attack on Russian bases in Crimea, employing a diverse array of munitions including cruise missiles, repurposed anti-aircraft systems, and drones. This large-scale operation, likely intended as a feint, successfully drew Russian air defense assets away from the front lines. The resulting weakening of Russian air defenses may facilitate subsequent Ukrainian offensives in regions such as Kursk and Donetsk. Simultaneous drone strikes targeted and destroyed multiple Russian radar systems in Crimea, further degrading their defensive capabilities.
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A massive Ukrainian coordinated strike on Friday utilized at least 40 diverse munitions, including Storm Shadow missiles, converted S-200 missiles, and drones, targeting Russian bases in Crimea. While seemingly a feint to draw Russian air defenses away from other crucial areas, this attack is strategically significant. The operation aims to create vulnerabilities in Russian air defenses, enabling future Ukrainian attacks on vital Russian command posts and supply lines in western Russia and eastern Ukraine. This diversionary tactic could prove critical in supporting Ukrainian forces currently engaged in intense fighting near Kursk.
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John Q. Hosedrinker 
Matt Underwood