Approximately 500,000 Syrian refugees have returned home since the fall of the Assad regime, primarily from neighboring countries, with a significant portion expressing a desire to return. This return is driven by optimism surrounding political changes, though obstacles remain, including economic hardship and widespread infrastructure damage. The lifting of US sanctions is viewed as potentially accelerating this process. The UN projects that the number of returning refugees could reach 1.5 million by year’s end, spurred by both refugee desire and host country policies aimed at repatriation.
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President Zelenskyy plans to meet with Turkish President Erdoğan in Ankara on Thursday, prepared to meet with Putin in Istanbul if he attends. Zelenskyy hopes a potential meeting with Donald Trump in Turkey will pressure Putin into attending and facilitate a ceasefire, believing direct leader-level talks are crucial before lower-level negotiations. While the Kremlin suggests only a lower-level delegation will attend, Zelenskyy emphasizes the need for a leader-level agreement on a ceasefire before any further progress. Failure to reach an agreement could trigger new US sanctions, with Zelenskyy expressing confidence in their potential implementation.
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Following a productive meeting at the Vatican, Ukrainian President Zelensky described his conversation with President Trump as their most substantive to date, focusing on US sanctions and Ukrainian air defenses. The leaders discussed a potential 30-day ceasefire as a first step towards peace, with Zelensky emphasizing the need for a longer truce than that offered by Russia. This meeting, Zelensky asserted, was pivotal in securing a crucial US-Ukraine minerals deal, involving a joint investment fund potentially including military aid. Zelensky rejected Russia’s short ceasefire proposal, deeming it insufficient and a mere attempt to improve Putin’s image.
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Following a meeting with US Senator Marco Rubio, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot announced the EU’s preparation of a 17th round of sanctions against Russia, directly blaming Vladimir Putin for obstructing peace in Ukraine. This action coordinates with a US sanctions initiative, and follows a newly signed US-Ukraine agreement on critical minerals, signaling a shift towards economic cooperation alongside continued military aid. Barrot emphasized the need for de-escalation of US tariffs and highlighted the importance of European strategic autonomy within NATO.
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In response to US sanctions against six Chinese officials for alleged “transnational repression” in Hong Kong, China announced tit-for-tat sanctions. These sanctions target US Congress members, officials, and NGO heads deemed to have acted severely on Hong Kong-related issues. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned the US actions as interference in China’s internal affairs and a violation of international law. This latest action escalates tensions between the two nations, adding to existing tariff disputes.
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The U.S. removed Karina Rotenberg, wife of sanctioned Russian oligarch Boris Rotenberg, from its sanctions list. Rotenberg, a U.S. citizen since at least 2013, had been sanctioned in 2022 despite continued international travel and significant joint assets with her husband, including European real estate and equestrian holdings. This action comes as the U.S. simultaneously expanded sanctions on other Russian individuals and entities, while the EU concurrently lifted sanctions on another sanctioned oligarch and his family. The reasons behind the U.S. decision to lift sanctions on Karina Rotenberg remain unstated in this report.
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In a Newsmax interview, Trump speculated that Russia may be stalling in the Ukraine conflict, drawing parallels to his own past business tactics. Following recent peace talks in Riyadh, a purported Black Sea ceasefire was announced, contingent upon US sanctions relief according to the Kremlin, a condition omitted from the White House statement. A previously brokered agreement to halt infrastructure strikes was swiftly broken by Russia. These events highlight the volatile nature of ongoing peace negotiations and the discrepancies in reporting between involved parties.
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On February 10th, hundreds of thousands of Iranians rallied for the 46th anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, using the event to directly challenge President Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign. Iranian officials, including President Pezeshkian and Vice President Aref, denounced U.S. sanctions and hypocrisy, emphasizing national sovereignty and rejecting any notion of negotiation with Washington. Despite economic hardship, the demonstrations projected unwavering defiance against U.S. pressure. This display of resilience underscores the increasingly tense relationship between the U.S. and Iran.
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Sanctioned Russian senator Suleiman Kerimov, through the Delaware-registered Heritage Trust, secretly held approximately 1% of SpaceX stock from 2017 until at least summer 2022, potentially forfeiting a stake worth $3.5 billion. This occurred despite US sanctions imposed due to Kerimov’s close ties to Vladimir Putin. It remains unclear if SpaceX was aware of Kerimov’s ownership, as inquiries to involved parties went unanswered. The revelation highlights a significant loophole in existing sanctions, allowing a high-profile sanctioned individual to maintain substantial investments in a prominent American company.
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Increased US sanctions targeting Gazprombank and numerous intermediary companies supplying Russia have severely impacted Russian-Chinese trade payments. Chinese banks, wary of US actions and potential violations, are delaying and scrutinizing yuan-denominated transactions, creating significant payment hurdles for Russian exporters. This cautious approach by Chinese financial institutions follows the blacklisting of approximately 100 companies, including some Chinese firms, for allegedly circumventing sanctions. The resulting payment delays and increased scrutiny contributed to a 7% decline in Russian exports during the final quarter of 2024.
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John Q. Hosedrinker