Amidst escalating conflict in Ukraine and potential US withdrawal of support under a Trump presidency, discussions regarding deploying Western troops and private military companies to Ukraine have resurfaced. France and the UK are leading these sensitive, largely classified talks, with France initiating the troop deployment debate earlier this year. While facing opposition from some European nations, recent discussions between Prime Ministers Starmer and Macron have revitalized the proposal. This includes exploring increased defense cooperation, potentially utilizing private defense contractors like France’s DCI and its British counterpart, Babcock, for training and equipment maintenance in Ukraine.
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Colonel General Gennady Anashkin, commander of the South Forces Group, was dismissed from his post for allegedly falsifying reports on battlefield progress near Siversk, Donetsk. This dismissal, reported by Russian media and military bloggers, follows criticisms of misleading information resulting in significant Russian losses. While the Ministry of Defense cites a planned rotation, bloggers suggest the removal is due to inaccurate reports. The incident highlights the reliance on military bloggers for information amidst the ongoing conflict and Ukraine’s ongoing intense defense.
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Russia is actively recruiting Yemeni Houthi fighters for its war in Ukraine through a covert human trafficking operation, promising lucrative employment but instead forcing conscription. These recruits, often lured with promises of high-paying jobs and citizenship, are deployed to the front lines with minimal training. Simultaneously, North Korea has supplied over 10,000 soldiers and military hardware to Russia, indicating a broadening of Moscow’s reliance on foreign mercenaries to bolster its military efforts in Ukraine. The deals involve exchanges of resources, highlighting the Kremlin’s willingness to utilize diverse means to sustain its war effort.
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Russia launched an experimental hypersonic missile, the Oreshnik, striking a military facility in Dnipro, prompting emergency talks between NATO and Ukraine. Putin framed the attack as retaliation for Ukraine’s use of Western-supplied long-range missiles, claiming the Oreshnik, capable of carrying nuclear or conventional warheads, is unmatched globally and will continue to be tested. This escalation, described by Polish Prime Minister Tusk as a decisive phase of the war, has led to heightened security measures in Kyiv and sparked concerns amongst Western leaders about further Russian actions. The attack, while resulting in no reported fatalities in Dnipro, underscores the intensifying conflict and Russia’s demonstrable technological advancements in weaponry.
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Bild journalist Julian Röpcke posits that the November 21st Dnipro missile strike utilized a modified, non-explosive RS-26 Rubezh missile, citing video evidence of submunitions lacking explosions. Röpcke suggests the minimal damage supports the claim of a propaganda act rather than a military one. This contradicts some Western and Ukrainian assessments identifying the missile as a nuclear-capable ICBM, although the Kremlin confirmed the use of a different missile type. The conflicting reports highlight the difficulty in definitively identifying the weapon used.
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As of November 22nd, an estimated 60,000 Russian troops, augmented by approximately 11,000 North Korean soldiers, are concentrated in Russia’s Kursk Oblast. These forces aim to establish a buffer zone along the Sumy Oblast border, countering Ukraine’s August incursion. Ukrainian forces, having initially gained ground, are holding their positions in Kursk Oblast while Russian forces have retaken approximately half of the initially lost territory. The ongoing conflict has resulted in significant Russian casualties, with over 7,900 killed, 12,200 wounded, and 717 captured in the three months since the offensive began.
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Following Russia’s missile strike on Dnipro, which utilized an intercontinental ballistic missile and prompted threats from Vladimir Putin against Western nations, China urged all involved parties to maintain calm and restraint. China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson emphasized the need for dialogue and consultation to de-escalate the situation and facilitate a political resolution to the Ukraine crisis. This call for restraint comes amidst reports of the attack’s damage to civilian infrastructure and Putin’s threats of retaliation. China’s stated position remains focused on achieving a ceasefire through peaceful means.
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Russia’s use of a MIRVed ballistic missile in Ukraine marks a dangerous escalation, representing the first-ever combat use of this technology. This departure from Cold War deterrence doctrine, where such missiles were designed to prevent nuclear war, now raises concerns about a “use them or lose them” scenario, incentivizing preemptive strikes. The high destructive capacity and vulnerability of MIRVs, even in conventional use, increases global instability. The proliferation of MIRV technology among various nations further exacerbates this risk, creating a more dangerous geopolitical environment.
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In response to Ukraine’s use of Western-supplied long-range missiles, Russia launched a new intermediate-range ballistic missile, the Oreshnik, striking Dnipro. President Putin characterized the launch as retaliation and warned of further action against any country aiding Ukraine’s attacks on Russian territory. The Oreshnik, described as hypersonic and capable of carrying conventional or nuclear warheads, prompted concern from the U.S., which was notified prior to the launch. This incident marks a significant escalation in the conflict, with both sides engaging in increasingly aggressive actions.
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John Q. Hosedrinker