On New Year’s Day, Russia will cease gas exports to Europe via Ukrainian pipelines, ending a five-year transit agreement and marking a significant geopolitical shift. This halt, coupled with an impending cold snap, will severely test Europe’s gas reserves, already depleted faster than in previous winters. The price of gas is rising, and the situation could stress-test European markets, particularly as countries face reduced wind power and increased heating demand. While some countries, like Slovakia, pressure Ukraine to renegotiate, Ukraine refuses a deal benefiting Russia financially.
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Amidst an ongoing dispute over Russian gas transit, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy accused Slovak Prime Minister Fico of initiating a second energy front against Ukraine at Russia’s behest. This accusation follows Fico’s threat to retaliate against Ukraine’s planned halt of Russian gas transit by cutting off emergency power supplies. Zelenskyy argues Fico’s actions disregard Slovakia’s role in the EU energy market and harm Ukrainian citizens during ongoing Russian attacks on energy infrastructure. Slovakia, however, maintains that maintaining Russian gas transit through Ukraine is crucial for its economy, despite reduced reliance on Russian gas across the EU.
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Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico warned of potential retaliatory measures against Ukraine, including electricity supply cuts, should Ukraine cease Russian gas transit after January 1st. This decision follows a meeting between Fico and Vladimir Putin, and comes amid Ukraine’s refusal to renew a gas transit deal with Russia. Fico argues that halting transit would harm EU competitiveness and highlighted Slovakia’s reliance on Russian gas despite increased EU efforts to diversify energy sources. The move reflects a shift in Slovakia’s foreign policy under Fico, causing concern among Ukraine and its European allies.
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Transnistria’s leader, Vadim Krasnoselsky, declared a 30-day economic state of emergency due to potential Russian gas supply disruptions stemming from the impending expiration of the Russia-Ukraine gas transit contract. The emergency measures include energy conservation and restrictions on exports and financial activities. This action follows Ukraine’s refusal to renew the contract, despite Russia’s stated willingness to continue deliveries, creating uncertainty about future gas transit routes. The potential cessation of transit through Ukraine poses significant financial risks to Russia, impacting Gazprom and significantly reducing already diminished gas flows.
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John Q. Hosedrinker