Despite a purported agreement to halt attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, Russia’s spring conscription has begun, calling up 160,000 men—10,000 more than the previous year. This follows heavy Russian military losses in Ukraine, prompting a tripling of the military’s size since the invasion began. The increased draft, coupled with recruitment of contract soldiers and foreign fighters, aims to replenish forces depleted by the ongoing conflict. Simultaneously, neighboring Finland, citing increased military threats, is increasing defense spending and abandoning its commitment to the Ottawa Convention banning anti-personnel mines.
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Amidst ongoing peace negotiations brokered by President Trump, Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov stated that current U.S. proposals are unacceptable, as they fail to address Russia’s core demand: resolving the root causes of the conflict. This demand centers on preventing Ukraine’s integration into NATO, a key security concern for Moscow. Ryabkov emphasized Russia’s commitment to its own priorities and approaches, even after recent talks in Riyadh. While partial ceasefires have been achieved, a complete resolution hinges on addressing this fundamental Russian concern.
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Zelenskyy’s recent calls for stronger measures against Russia are certainly noteworthy, especially considering the backdrop of Donald Trump’s expressed frustration with Vladimir Putin. The situation highlights a stark contrast in approaches to the ongoing conflict. While Zelenskyy advocates for firm action against Russia, Trump’s reaction to being kept waiting by Putin suggests a different dynamic at play, one that raises serious questions about his priorities.
The incident itself, with Trump reportedly being placed on hold for an hour by Putin, has sparked considerable commentary. The perceived humiliation of a former U.S. President waiting on the line for Putin underlines the power imbalance that the Russian leader enjoys.… Continue reading
Despite ongoing ceasefire negotiations between Russia and the U.S., tensions remain high following President Putin’s suggestion that Ukrainian President Zelenskyy be replaced. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed that Russia continues to engage with the U.S. and that Putin remains open to communication with Donald Trump, downplaying Trump’s expressed anger over the proposal. Trump, however, voiced strong displeasure with Putin’s comments, threatening further sanctions if a peace agreement isn’t reached and a ceasefire isn’t implemented. These developments occur amidst continued accusations of ceasefire violations by both Russia and Ukraine.
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Intelligence indicates Russia plans renewed offensives in eastern and southern Ukraine, prompting President Zelenskyy to call for broad defense efforts against what he characterizes as Putin’s land-grab strategy. Despite Trump’s expressed anger at Putin’s aims, the latter reportedly remains confident in a military victory. Simultaneously, Russia is reportedly dismissing conscripts and experiencing high casualty rates, while Ukraine reports improved soldier survival rates due to modernized training. The conflicting views highlight the ongoing tension and uncertainty in the conflict.
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Russians are sending way more drones than they used to, a significant increase in the sheer number of unmanned aerial vehicles launched in the ongoing conflict. Reports indicate a tenfold increase, from a previous average of ten drones to eighty now. This dramatic escalation immediately raises questions about the implications of this shift in tactics.
This massive surge in drone deployments seems to represent a calculated strategic shift. The aim appears to be overwhelming Ukrainian air defenses through sheer volume, a strategy of attrition designed to wear down enemy capabilities. The cost-effectiveness of this approach becomes apparent when considering the relative expense of air defense systems versus the individual cost of drones.… Continue reading
President Zelensky renewed his plea for increased international pressure on Russia, demanding stronger sanctions and enhanced air defense systems for Ukraine. He highlighted the relentless Russian attacks, including a recent drone strike in Kharkiv that killed civilians and targeted a military hospital, as evidence of Russia’s disregard for diplomacy and proposed ceasefires. Despite Ukraine’s acceptance of a U.S.-proposed 30-day ceasefire, Russia’s refusal underscores the need for decisive action. Zelensky emphasized the necessity of utilizing all available tools to achieve a lasting ceasefire and lasting security.
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Satellite imagery analysis reveals a drastic 3.5-4 times reduction in Russia’s tank restoration rate since 2022, insufficient to offset battlefield losses. Resurgam and Vishun_military researchers estimate that only around 1,200 tanks remain readily restorable, with over 4,000 decommissioned since 2022. This depletion of easily accessible reserves, coupled with a decline in monthly restoration from 120 units in 2022 to 30-35 in early 2025, is forcing Russia to utilize civilian vehicles and highlights a critical shortfall in tank production and repair capabilities. The dwindling number of restorable tanks, along with the dismantling of equipment “burial grounds,” further underscores the severity of the situation.
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President Zelenskyy plans to run for reelection as early as this summer, potentially as soon as July, following a ceasefire anticipated by April’s end. This decision, spurred by a recent shift in political calculations, involves preparations for an election after the lifting of martial law in May. While opponents like Poroshenko predict a later election date, a July vote could strategically benefit Zelenskyy by limiting opposition campaigning. However, a rushed election risks exacerbating tensions within Ukraine and presents potential vulnerabilities to Russian influence.
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Intelligence suggests Russia is planning a large-scale spring offensive across multiple Ukrainian regions, including Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia. This offensive, predicted to last six to nine months, aims to improve Russia’s position in ceasefire negotiations. Increased Russian reconnaissance missions and intensified fighting in areas like Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia precede the anticipated assault, with reports of troop reinforcements and escalated attacks. Ukrainian commanders fear the deployment of battle-hardened troops from the Kursk region, potentially leading to a protracted conflict extending into 2025.
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John Q. Hosedrinker 
Matt Underwood