The EU implemented its seventeenth sanctions package against Russia on May 20th, targeting nearly 200 vessels within Russia’s shadow fleet and addressing hybrid threats and human rights violations. This action follows previous announcements regarding increased pressure on Russia, including potential sanctions against supporting financial institutions. Work has already begun on an eighteenth package, potentially targeting banks outside the EU that aid Russia’s military. The EU’s stance remains firm: escalated Russian aggression will be met with progressively stronger countermeasures.
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Russia’s recent failed missile test exposes deep flaws within its military-industrial complex, undermining its strategic deterrence and the credibility of its nuclear threats. This incident, following a previous devastating missile strike in November 2024, reveals vulnerabilities in even Russia’s most advanced weaponry. The failure casts doubt on the effectiveness of Russia’s intimidation tactics, which rely heavily on the perceived power of its arsenal. Consequently, the myth of Russian military invincibility is eroding as its actions increasingly contradict its boasts. This weakening of Russia’s perceived strength contrasts sharply with the strengthening defenses of Ukraine and its allies.
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Following a phone call between Presidents Putin and Trump, during which a full ceasefire remained elusive, President Zelensky rejected Russia’s demand for Ukrainian troop withdrawal from occupied territories. Zelensky emphasized Ukraine’s right to its land and advocated for a ceasefire and Ukrainian involvement in any peace negotiations. A prisoner exchange is planned, and Zelensky mentioned potential future sanctions from the EU and US. Negotiations continue, with discussions of a broader meeting involving Ukraine, Russia, the US, and the EU.
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A rare phone call between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump yielded contrasting interpretations. While Trump lauded the conversation as “excellent” and predicted imminent ceasefire negotiations, Putin, while acknowledging a “meaningful and frank” discussion, refused a US-proposed 30-day unconditional ceasefire. Putin reiterated Russia’s maximalist war aims, centering on addressing what he termed the “root causes” of the conflict, which include significant concessions from Ukraine. Despite Zelenskyy’s call for a full ceasefire and stronger sanctions against Russia if negotiations fail, no significant breakthrough emerged from the call.
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President Trump initiated ceasefire negotiations concerning the Ukraine conflict with a phone call to President Zelenskyy on May 19th, deviating from expectations of initially contacting Vladimir Putin. Following the Zelenskyy call, Trump subsequently spoke with Putin, as previously announced. The calls aimed to advance efforts toward ending the war between Russia and Ukraine. Trump’s planned diplomatic outreach also includes conversations with NATO allies.
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Ahead of a call with Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin reportedly believes Russia will seize four Ukrainian oblasts by 2025, thus possessing leverage against any peace negotiations. This confidence, despite contradicting Western and even some Russian military assessments, fuels Putin’s unwillingness to concede. European officials worry Trump might pressure for a settlement regardless of Putin’s stance, while Putin remains prepared for a protracted conflict. Trump, conversely, seeks a swift resolution and plans to update Zelenskyy and NATO allies following his conversation with Putin.
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The EU approved its 17th sanctions package against Russia, focusing on its “shadow” oil fleet used to circumvent existing export restrictions and targeting approximately 200 tankers. The package also adds dozens of Russian officials to the sanctions list for various offenses, including cyberattacks and human rights abuses. This relatively modest package reflects the increasing difficulty in achieving EU-wide consensus on new sanctions. Further, the EU issued a stark warning of “massive sanctions” should Russia reject a proposed ceasefire in Ukraine, emphasizing the potential for significantly harsher measures in the future.
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Following a conversation with President Trump, Finnish President Stubb reported growing US impatience with Vladimir Putin, urging that Ukraine’s fate not be decided without President Zelenskyy’s input. A potential US sanctions package, described as “bone-crushing,” could be introduced in Congress this week, contingent on Monday’s Trump-Putin phone call. Stubb emphasized the need for unified European action against Russia, advocating for increased European defense spending and highlighting Russia’s diminished economic and military power. The upcoming NATO summit may see disagreements on Russia strategy, particularly concerning Ukraine’s future membership.
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In Rome on May 18th, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy held a productive meeting with US Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The discussion centered on the unrealistic Russian demands presented during Istanbul peace talks, with Zelenskyy emphasizing Ukraine’s commitment to genuine diplomacy and a complete, unconditional ceasefire. He highlighted Russia’s lack of negotiating authority and ceasefire violations, underscoring the need for continued international pressure to compel Russia to end the war. The meeting also covered sanctions, trade, defense cooperation, and prisoner exchanges.
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Following a meeting where Zelenskyy urged a full and unconditional ceasefire, international efforts to end the conflict intensified. While Russia’s recent drone attacks involved significant decoys, Western leaders, including Trump who plans to speak with both Putin and Zelenskyy, are coordinating to pressure Russia into ceasing hostilities. A ceasefire is viewed as the crucial preliminary step before considering further options, with the deployment of peacekeeping troops currently deemed premature.
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John Q. Hosedrinker