Seizing Russian assets, rather than merely freezing them, presents a powerful strategy to pressure Russia and support Ukraine. The current approach of freezing assets, while significant, leaves open the possibility of their eventual return. This uncertainty undermines the impact of sanctions and potentially emboldens Russia. A decisive move to seize and utilize these assets would send a clear message that the international community is serious about holding Russia accountable for its actions.
The argument for seizing assets is rooted in the notion of effective deterrence. Simply freezing assets may not be enough to change Russia’s calculus, as the potential for their recovery remains.… Continue reading
At a Kyiv summit marking the war’s third anniversary, Prime Minister Trudeau announced $5 billion in aid for Ukraine, the first tranche from seized Russian assets. This commitment includes 25 additional light armoured vehicles, support for energy security, and four F-16 flight simulators. Trudeau reiterated Canada’s support for Ukraine’s role in peace negotiations and emphasized the need to prevent a return to might-makes-right principles. Canada will continue training Ukrainian troops and assisting in post-conflict recovery and rebuilding.
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Britain’s announcement of further sanctions targeting individuals with Kremlin links represents a significant escalation in its support for Ukraine. This move, seemingly long overdue for some commentators, aims to directly pressure the Russian government by targeting those perceived as enabling or benefiting from its actions. The timing is crucial, given ongoing concerns about the waning of international support for Ukraine and the persistent threat of Russian aggression.
The selection of individuals for these new sanctions is clearly a topic of considerable public debate. Many online comments highlight specific individuals they feel should be included, ranging from prominent political figures to business leaders.… Continue reading
War-hardened Ukrainians, having endured years of brutal conflict, remain steadfastly defiant in the face of challenges posed by the current US administration. Their resilience is striking, born from the crucible of war and fueled by a determination to defend their sovereignty. The contrast between promises of allyship in 1994 and the current political climate underscores the profound shifts in global dynamics.
The situation is complex, however. While the economic strain on Russia is evident, and its military capacity is being tested by Ukraine’s tenacious resistance and the superior logistics of NATO allies, the influence of the US remains significant. Despite not having boots on the ground, US support has been crucial.… Continue reading
EU Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis urged the EU to assume greater autonomy in its sanctions policy against Russia, anticipating potential shifts in U.S. priorities. This call comes amidst ongoing work on a 16th sanctions package and hints from U.S. Secretary of State Rubio suggesting future EU involvement in sanctions relief discussions with Russia. The G7 previously linked further sanctions to peace negotiations. The EU’s 15th package, approved in December, targeted numerous individuals and entities involved in facilitating Russia’s war effort.
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Vice President Vance issued a stark warning, suggesting potential US military intervention in Ukraine and intensified sanctions against Russia if peace negotiations fail to secure Kyiv’s independence. This position contrasts sharply with recent White House statements, including President Trump’s suggestion of potential Russian annexation of Ukraine and Secretary Hegseth’s assertion of reduced US commitment to European security. Vance’s comments, made before a meeting with President Zelensky, highlight growing anxieties in Europe over a potential unfavorable peace deal brokered without Ukrainian input. His emphasis on NATO burden-sharing reflects a broader discussion regarding the alliance’s future amidst these uncertainties.
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Kpler data reveals that sanctioned Russian nuclear icebreakers, operated by Atomflot, facilitated the delivery of significant quantities of LNG from Yamal LNG to European companies, including Shell, TotalEnergies, and Naturgy. While direct payments to Atomflot by European entities haven’t been confirmed, indirect benefits via Yamal LNG raise legal and ethical concerns regarding sanctions compliance. Experts argue that these indirect links pose a high risk of sanctions violations, particularly given publicly available information on Atomflot’s icebreaking fees. Despite Shell and Naturgy asserting compliance, the situation underscores the ethical implications of profiting from Russia’s energy exports during the ongoing war in Ukraine.
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Following a suspected sabotage incident involving a Russian oil tanker in the Baltic Sea, European nations are privately exploring large-scale seizures of similar vessels. This consideration stems from concerns over Russia’s “shadow fleet” circumventing sanctions and the potential for further sabotage, particularly of critical infrastructure. Proposed legal frameworks for seizures are under development, leveraging international law and potentially national legislation to address the issue. The significant volume of sanctioned Russian oil transiting the Gulf of Finland underscores the urgency of these discussions. These actions are taken in response to increased security threats and intelligence warnings of potential Russian sabotage.
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President Trump’s special envoy, Keith Kellogg, revealed plans to significantly escalate sanctions against Russia to end the war in Ukraine. Kellogg described current sanctions as a “three” on a ten-point scale of effectiveness and indicated a potential doubling of pressure, particularly targeting Russia’s energy sector. This intensified approach, involving a whole-of-government strategy, contrasts with the Biden administration’s approach, which Kellogg criticized as lacking a clear strategy. While exploring potential arms deals, Trump prioritizes halting the violence before engaging in negotiations, recognizing Russia’s history of tolerating high military casualties.
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Sanctioned Russian senator Suleiman Kerimov, through the Delaware-registered Heritage Trust, secretly held approximately 1% of SpaceX stock from 2017 until at least summer 2022, potentially forfeiting a stake worth $3.5 billion. This occurred despite US sanctions imposed due to Kerimov’s close ties to Vladimir Putin. It remains unclear if SpaceX was aware of Kerimov’s ownership, as inquiries to involved parties went unanswered. The revelation highlights a significant loophole in existing sanctions, allowing a high-profile sanctioned individual to maintain substantial investments in a prominent American company.
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Matt Underwood 
John Q. Hosedrinker