Ukraine’s recent “long-range sanctions,” or more accurately, what appears to be a direct strike, have targeted a crucial fuel-pumping station vital to supplying central Russia and the Moscow region. This incident is significant because it strikes at the heart of Russia’s energy infrastructure, acting as a stark reminder to ordinary citizens that the ongoing conflict is far from the smooth operation often portrayed by official channels. The notion of a “gas station pretending to be a country” suddenly finding itself without gas, or at least the means to distribute it effectively, highlights a potential economic vulnerability being exposed.
The question of how easily such a critical piece of infrastructure can be replaced is paramount.… Continue reading
Russian federal budget revenues from oil and gas have experienced a dramatic 50% decline in January 2026, reaching their lowest point since July 2020 and representing a record low as a percentage of GDP during Putin’s presidency. This significant revenue drop, attributed to falling oil prices and substantial discounts due to sanctions, is exacerbating a budget shortfall. The situation is further compounded by anticipated reductions in oil shipments to India and a potential increase in the 2026 deficit, prompting major producers like Lukoil to seek government support.
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Despite President Putin’s claims of potential U.S.-Russia cooperation on rare earth minerals, Russia’s domestic mining industry, particularly coal, faces a severe crisis. Eight mines in the Kemerovo region have suspended operations due to debt, plummeting demand, and the impact of Western sanctions. This crisis, affecting hundreds of thousands of workers in coal-dependent towns, poses a significant political challenge for Putin and highlights the economic turmoil caused by the war in Ukraine. The failure of a proposed U.S.-Ukraine deal on rare earth minerals further complicates the situation, leaving Russia’s mining sector increasingly vulnerable.
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Matt Underwood 
John Q. Hosedrinker