In recent weeks, Ukraine has launched a series of attacks on Russian refineries, successfully disrupting their refining capacity by a significant margin, and forcing Russia to extend its petroleum product export ban. While Russia has responded with attacks on Ukrainian cities, including a deadly strike on Kyiv, the Ukrainian strikes have forced Russia to seek to increase crude oil exports and heavily discount its crude to maintain clients. On the battlefield, Russia has been shifting forces, particularly towards the Donetsk region, and claims of territorial gains have been disputed by independent assessments. Furthermore, Ukraine has made some advances in the Black Sea, striking Russian vessels and infrastructure, while also developing long-range strike capabilities to target deep within Russia.
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Fuel shortages are emerging in occupied Crimea and Russia’s Zabaykalsky Krai, with A-95 petrol being restricted to businesses and organizations using special fuel cards. Residents report the disappearance of petrol from many filling stations and inflated prices, even with official retail price controls in place. These restrictions began in early August, coinciding with Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries, which have disrupted operations and reduced fuel supply. Despite government efforts to curb prices, including an export ban, petrol prices continue to rise, reaching historic highs on the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange and impacting domestic availability.
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Ukraine’s GenStaff says its deep strikes have erased 4% of Russia’s GDP this year, and that figure certainly grabs your attention. Four percent might not seem like a colossal figure at first glance, but when you’re talking about the entire economic output of a country, it represents a significant dent, a real punch to the gut. It’s a substantial sum of money, and you have to wonder, just how much damage needs to be inflicted before it becomes truly unsustainable for Russia to keep up the fight?
This brings up the million-dollar question: What percentage point of economic damage would it take to make the war unfeasible for Russia to continue?… Continue reading
Ukrainian drones reportedly strike Russian oil plants almost 2,000 km inside Russia, a development that’s certainly making waves and seems to be a turning point in this conflict. It’s becoming increasingly clear that Ukraine is capable of projecting power deep within Russia, and the implications of this are substantial.
I can almost picture the scene, with Putin summoning his advisors, demanding action to halt these attacks. The problem, however, is likely a significant one for the Russians: much of their defensive focus is probably concentrated on Moscow, leaving other areas, especially those further east, relatively vulnerable. Russia’s sheer size, a potential asset in some ways, has become a significant liability.… Continue reading
On August 4, the price of Ai-95 gasoline reached a record high on the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange, exceeding 77,000 rubles per ton. This price surge is attributed to recent Ukrainian drone attacks targeting Russian oil refineries, particularly the one in Ryazan Oblast. These attacks have damaged facilities, potentially impacting the processing of 40,000 tons of crude oil per day and requiring extensive repairs. This price increase occurs shortly after Russia implemented a gasoline export ban to stabilize the domestic market, with prior bans implemented to address fuel shortages and high prices.
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On Saturday, Ukrainian anti-corruption bodies announced the discovery of a corruption scheme involving the procurement of military drones and signal jamming systems at inflated prices. The agencies, NABU and SAPO, identified a lawmaker, officials, and national guard personnel receiving bribes in exchange for awarding contracts at inflated costs, with kickbacks reaching up to 30%. This revelation comes just days after the agencies’ independence was restored following widespread protests against a move to diminish their authority. President Zelenskyy has expressed a commitment to zero tolerance for corruption and the importance of just sentences, signaling the significance of the investigation.
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Indian oil refiners continue to procure oil from Russian suppliers, prioritizing factors like price and logistics. Sources indicated that India’s strategy aligns with its role as a major energy consumer, ensuring access to affordable energy while adhering to international standards, even as the U.S. has voiced concerns. Historically, Russian oil has not been sanctioned, but rather subject to a price-cap mechanism, and India has maintained fully legitimate purchases within those established frameworks. India’s actions have contributed to global energy stability, ensuring that markets remain liquid and prices remain stable.
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Recent Ukrainian drone strikes on three major Russian oil refineries, including those operated by Lukoil and Rosneft, have raised concerns about Russia’s fuel production capacity. While the Ryazan refinery has reportedly ceased operations, experts believe Russia can currently manage these disruptions by increasing output elsewhere. These attacks, part of a broader Ukrainian campaign targeting Russian infrastructure, aim to hinder military supplies and reduce oil exports. However, assessing the full impact is difficult due to limited public information and Russia’s continued success in redirecting oil exports to Asian markets.
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John Q. Hosedrinker 
Matt Underwood