“Kinetic sanctions”: 160 strikes on Russian refineries cut oil output by 90% – SBU chief, that headline, it’s a real grabber, isn’t it? It certainly gets your attention, and it’s easy to see why it would be shared widely. However, when we dig into the details and the supporting information, things get a little murkier, and we need to approach the claims with a healthy dose of skepticism.
The core of the issue lies in that initial 90% figure. It’s a significant claim, suggesting a massive impact on Russia’s oil production capabilities. But when you start to look for hard evidence to back it up, you run into some problems.… Continue reading
AP News reports that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that long-range strikes on Russian refineries have diminished Moscow’s oil refining capacity by 20%, with over 90% of those strikes conducted using Ukrainian-made weapons. He emphasized the need for more financial assistance to increase production of these weapons. Zelenskyy also discussed ongoing efforts to secure funding for winter gas imports and bolster defense against Russian attacks.
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In September, Russia’s seaborne oil product exports experienced a 17.1% drop, totaling 7.58 million metric tons, due to Ukrainian drone attacks disrupting refinery operations. The strikes caused unplanned outages at key facilities operated by Surgutneftegaz, Lukoil, and Rosneft, resulting in reduced fuel shipments. Exports from various port regions decreased, while analysts suggest that continued attacks undermine Russia’s fuel production and could lead to prioritization of domestic supply. This follows a previously reported 9.1% decline in seaborne oil product exports for 2024, attributed to the aforementioned factors.
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Russia loses one million tons of fuel in September alone as strikes and sanctions converge, a staggering figure that highlights the complex challenges facing the Russian energy sector. It’s a situation that paints a picture of significant disruption, with a combination of factors contributing to this massive loss of fuel production.
The Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries, specifically, are a key part of this story. While precise numbers are always tricky to pin down, with some news outlets claiming up to 38% of Russian oil refining capacity is offline, the situation isn’t quite that simple. Considering that Russia can refine 327 million tons of oil annually, or roughly 6.5 million barrels per day, the impact of these attacks, targeting 16 refineries, is significant.… Continue reading
Fuel shortages of AI-92 and AI-95 gasoline are emerging in several Russian regions, stemming from Ukrainian drone attacks on oil refineries. These attacks have disrupted supply chains, particularly affecting independent filling stations that lack the resources to stockpile fuel. Regional authorities claim disruptions are due to supply chain issues and anticipate a return to normal. To mitigate rising prices, the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange has tightened trading rules for diesel and gasoline, reflecting rising prices despite earlier restrictions.
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Ukrainian forces struck two oil refineries in Russia overnight on September 20th, one in Saratov and another in Samara Oblast, as confirmed by Ukraine’s General Staff. The strikes also damaged a key transport infrastructure facility in Samara. These actions are part of Kyiv’s ongoing campaign to diminish Russia’s military-economic potential, targeting oil and gas infrastructure vital for supporting the Russian armed forces. The reported attacks occurred amid a backdrop of gasoline shortages in Russia, further intensifying the impact of the Ukrainian strikes.
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Russia is facing its worst fuel shortage in years, primarily due to Ukrainian drone strikes targeting oil refineries. These attacks have disabled approximately 17% of Russia’s oil refining capacity since August, leading to a significant daily loss of gasoline and diesel production. The crisis is expected to persist at least through the winter, exacerbated by scheduled maintenance and high interest rates hindering fuel supply for smaller gas stations. To address the issue, authorities have implemented short-term measures like export bans, as well as systemic plans like refining oil in Belarus, though long-term solutions may require ending the war or reforming price regulations.
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On September 18th, Ukrainian drones reportedly targeted the Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat petrochemical plant in Russia’s Bashkortostan Republic, resulting in a fire and “massive explosion” at a crude oil processing unit. Separately, Ukrainian forces also struck an oil refinery in Russia’s Volgograd Oblast, which is a key supplier to the Russian military and forced operations to cease. The attacks are part of a broader strategy to disrupt Russia’s oil industry. While Russian authorities claimed to have intercepted numerous Ukrainian drones across several regions, The Kyiv Independent could not independently verify the claims.
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Deep strike: Ukrainian drones hit major Russian oil plants 1,300 km from front lines – that’s the headline, and it’s a significant one. It really drives home just how far Ukraine can now reach inside Russia, delivering what amounts to a harsh dose of reality to the enemy’s doorstep, or, more accurately, their gas station. It’s a testament to the ingenuity and determination of the Ukrainian forces. This isn’t just about military targets; it’s about disrupting the very fabric of Russia’s war machine, potentially forcing them to confront their own resource limitations and perhaps even start importing fuel again, which would be quite a reversal.… Continue reading
Ukrainian drone strikes throughout August have disabled 20% of Russia’s oil refining capacity, coinciding with peak seasonal demand and causing record-high gasoline prices and fuel shortages. This campaign is intended to cripple Russia’s war economy and serve as a direct form of sanction, with attacks also targeting military production facilities, fuel trains, and infrastructure like the Druzhba pipeline. Ukraine’s growing long-range capabilities, including the new Flamingo cruise missile, pose a significant threat to Russia’s energy sector and potentially shift the balance of the conflict. The Kremlin’s limited air defense capabilities across its vast territory make it difficult to protect against these attacks, leading to serious economic repercussions.
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Matt Underwood 
John Q. Hosedrinker