According to polling data from two major Russian state-linked survey organizations, President Vladimir Putin’s approval rating has experienced its fastest weekly decline since late 2022. This drop, attributed in part to a growing fuel crisis and deteriorating economic sentiment, has seen the share of Russians approving of his performance fall significantly, with disapproval reaching its highest point since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began. Public trust in Putin and support for the Russian government have also weakened, marking the most unfavorable levels recorded since the start of the war.
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State fuel tenders across Russia are collapsing as suppliers find fixed-price contracts unprofitable due to rising gasoline prices. This has led to vital institutions like hospitals, fire brigades, and municipal services struggling to secure fuel, with tender cancellations tripling compared to last year. The supply tightness is a direct consequence of Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russian oil refineries, which have significantly reduced refining capacity and constrained domestic fuel supplies. Consequently, public institutions are increasingly forced to accept less competitive bids or even sign with single suppliers, impacting the operational capabilities of essential services.
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Almost all of Russia’s regions are experiencing gasoline shortages or supply disruptions due to Ukrainian drone attacks targeting its refineries. This escalating crisis, first seen in Crimea, is now impacting fuel availability across the country, with gas stations implementing rationing and leading to public discontent. The situation is exacerbated by the persistence and scale of Ukrainian strikes, pushing Russian refinery operations to multi-year lows and straining the oil industry’s resilience.
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Major Russian oil companies are implementing strict fuel purchase limits in Moscow and its surrounding regions, a significant development given the capital’s historically stable fuel supply. These restrictions, including caps on liters per transaction and bans on canister sales, are attributed to escalating Ukrainian drone attacks on critical energy infrastructure and broader logistical challenges exacerbated by wartime demands. The spread of these rationing measures, initially seen in border regions, now signifies that fuel supply pressures have become too great to contain outside of the country’s largest metropolitan area.
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The fuel crisis gripping Russia has spread to over half of its administrative regions, stemming from escalated Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries, which have significantly reduced refining capacity. The Far East and occupied Crimea have been the hardest hit, with rationing and severe shortages, while central regions experience disruptions. The Russian government has downplayed the crisis, attributing it to logistical issues, and has responded by banning fuel exports and seeking support from Belarus and China. Experts predict the duration of the crisis depends on the frequency of future attacks on refineries, with hundreds of gas stations already closed across the country.
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Ukraine’s refinery strikes trigger nationwide fuel collapse across Russia, and this is a situation that’s rapidly unfolding and seems to be having significant repercussions. The sustained drone campaign targeting Russian refineries appears to have caused a ripple effect, extending far beyond the immediate areas struck. The reports suggest at least ten regions, stretching from the front lines to major cities like Moscow and Saint Petersburg, are experiencing fuel shortages and disruptions.
This situation has forced the government’s hand in at least some areas, rationing supplies and, most noticeably, causing massive queues at gas stations. While official narratives try to downplay the crisis by attributing it to “seasonal demand issues,” the timing and severity of the problems point to a much more critical factor: the relentless strikes on Russia’s fuel infrastructure.… Continue reading
John Q. Hosedrinker 
Matt Underwood