Ukraine to set up arms export offices in Berlin, Copenhagen, Zelenskiy says – that’s quite the announcement, isn’t it? It immediately sparks a lot of thoughts, doesn’t it? My first impression? It’s a savvy move, especially considering the current context. It’s almost like a wartime necessity turned into an economic opportunity.
Now, you might be wondering, why export arms when you’re in the middle of a conflict and presumably *needing* those weapons? Well, it’s not as contradictory as it might seem initially. The core of this strategy revolves around revenue generation. Ukraine is essentially transforming its battlefield experience and technological prowess into a tangible asset.… Continue reading
Russia’s industrial titans furlough workers as its war economy stalls, a trend now becoming increasingly visible as the war in Ukraine grinds on. What was initially touted as a display of economic strength is slowly revealing its cracks. While some might dismiss this as mere economic fluctuations, the situation points to a deeper issue: a war economy struggling to sustain itself. Cemros spokesman Sergei Koshkin’s statement calling these furloughs a “necessary anti-crisis measure” is interesting. Though it would seem he might soon be joining the ranks of Russia’s elite, it’s hard to imagine a crisis not be a crisis. Russia’s reliance on a war economy, where the government heavily dictates production and spending, has its limits.… Continue reading
President Zelensky has stated his intention to step down after the war concludes, emphasizing his focus on ending the conflict rather than seeking reelection. He indicated he would be “ready” to leave office, suggesting a desire for a leader with a new mandate to guide post-war peace efforts. Zelensky has also expressed his willingness to ask Ukraine’s parliament to organize elections following a ceasefire, despite the current ban on elections under martial law, and has even discussed the possibility with the US President. While elections are currently legally impossible, officials have stated they will occur after martial law ends, with concerns raised about the timeframe needed for proper preparation.
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Russia’s Putin denies economy is stagnating, as evidence suggests otherwise, and this is a narrative that feels increasingly familiar. It’s like a broken record, where the leader insists everything is fine while the facts on the ground tell a different story. The similarities between this and certain situations in the US are striking. It seems the denial of economic realities has become a common tactic in some leadership circles.
The current economic situation is, frankly, concerning. Reports indicate that Russia is planning to significantly increase its borrowing, likely to offset the massive government spending. This spending is, at least in part, propping up the economy, so without it, things could get much worse, and rapidly.… Continue reading
Ukraine’s GenStaff says its deep strikes have erased 4% of Russia’s GDP this year, and that figure certainly grabs your attention. Four percent might not seem like a colossal figure at first glance, but when you’re talking about the entire economic output of a country, it represents a significant dent, a real punch to the gut. It’s a substantial sum of money, and you have to wonder, just how much damage needs to be inflicted before it becomes truly unsustainable for Russia to keep up the fight?
This brings up the million-dollar question: What percentage point of economic damage would it take to make the war unfeasible for Russia to continue?… Continue reading
Putin still has no intention of stopping the Ukraine war, and frankly, that’s hardly surprising. It’s become painfully obvious to everyone, except perhaps a few people who seem to live in an alternate reality. From a purely strategic viewpoint, the whole thing seems incredibly counterproductive. It’s hurting his own demographics, depleting his military’s resources, and providing the West with invaluable insights into how the Russian military actually functions. It’s even prompted large countries to rearm, increasing the very threat he supposedly wants to eliminate.
It’s hard to understand the logic behind this, beyond the obvious. It feels like a terrible waste of life, a pointless bloodshed.… Continue reading
The Russian government has initiated a campaign to nationalize the assets of Konstantin Strukov, a billionaire and owner of Russia’s largest gold mining company, marking an escalation in the Kremlin’s efforts to seize wealth from its elite. Strukov, despite his history of loyalty and political ties, had his private jet grounded and passport seized, with the FSB involved in preventing his departure from the country. This action is part of a broader pattern of reclaiming private wealth to support the war economy, particularly in sectors like gold and oil, amidst shrinking revenues and growing budget deficits. This case, along with others, indicates a shift in the Putin-era social contract, where loyalty no longer guarantees protection from asset seizure as the Kremlin seeks new funding sources.
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Despite some Western companies considering a return to Russia post-war, the Russian government is prioritizing domestic businesses and isn’t eagerly awaiting their return. Officials have stated that there will be consequences for past decisions, emphasizing a focus on domestic and Eurasian Economic Union companies. While some Western firms may be tempted by potential opportunities, concerns about staff safety, rule of law, and reputational damage remain significant deterrents. The current Russian economic climate, marked by high inflation and a challenging energy market, further complicates the appeal of re-entering the market.
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Matt Underwood 
John Q. Hosedrinker