Post-Conflict Integration

Syrian Rebel Groups Agree to Disband, Raising Questions About Lasting Peace

Syrian authorities have announced an agreement where several armed groups have consented to disband and consolidate under the national defense ministry. This is a monumental event, and its success hinges on many factors, making it incredibly difficult to predict the long-term outcome. The historical precedent for such a large-scale integration of previously opposing armed factions into a unified national military following a protracted civil war is, frankly, quite slim.

Most successful civil wars ultimately see one dominant faction emerge victorious, effectively monopolizing power. We rarely witness situations where multiple rebel groups, after overthrowing a government, manage to successfully merge into a single, unified national entity.… Continue reading